@YKT, good point. The album is definitely going to hurt the sales because of the insane handshake/two shot system they have for it. Due to the lottery system you just know people will buy multiple copies at 2000 yen a pop!
Furthermore, we've seen decreasing sales for pretty much every group and subunit. However, they're probably less affected by this trend since AKB48 is the main beefcake.
I quite like the song and the PV preview looks as epic as ever, so they should be good in that aspect.
I can't see how this could do worse than Ue Kara Mariko, but there are several factors which may hurt the sales. Very hard to predict. I'll be disappointed if it doesn't break a million, but I don't want to take those epic sales for granted either.
Main point: No Acchan = 500K sales.