Let's predict and analyse!
Green = go up in ranking.
Orange = More or less the same ranking / hard to predict.
Red = go down in ranking.
Battle for #1-
Yuko: been a bit invisible this year. Not yet didn't do anything. She did some random horror movie and the voice for Brave, but I can’t recall any recent epic Yuko moments.
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Mayu: solid solo single, plenty of magazine shoots and another PB incoming. However, a few of us mentioned she looks pretty tired. The pressure definitely weighing heavily on her shoulders and she's not as fresh anymore as she used to be.
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Yuki: solo debut with sales above expectation. Still keeping her face out there. She’s maintaining her position a lot better than I would have thought, so who knows what she can achieve this time.
Sashihara: going to be really interesting. Scandal, transfer, but she handled it like only she can. Not sure if she’ll be able to get top five again, but we’ll see her in the top ten for sure. Quoting: <maliciel> maybe yuko can retire so sasshi can claim her rightful place at the top.
Mariko VS
Takamina VS
Kojima: solid first gen. They’re all still active doing what they do and they’re all still popular. Top ten for sure, but specific rankings will be impossible to predict.
Itano: gone.
Jurina VS
Rena: Jurina’s had a tough year with plenty of absences, but she still gets center positions in AKB and SKE. Rena is as popular as ever, so once again, hard to predict. I would have sworn Rena would have beaten Jurina last time, but her critical G+ messages may have lost her some fans in the last minute. I hope she’ll take it this year.
Sae: IF they include her as member... maybe she can remain top 16.
Rie: has been getting pushed endlessly, but she just doesn’t have it. I doubt many are excited about her transfer to SKE48. I can’t see her rising. Maybe top 16. Maybe.
Kasai: gone.
Minegishi: how bad is that scandal going to affect her? I don’t even mind the scandal so much, but the way she handled it was ridiculous. In the end she acted on selfish motives (1. break the rules in the first place 2. say you love the group, but act without consulting the management to hurt the image of the group to save your own ass). Miichan’s been great, but at this moment in time she doesn’t deserve top 16.
Yui: unlike Rie, Yui’s transfer seems like a match made in heaven. I can see her cracking top ten this year. Yui’s very likable and I think more and more people will get hooked. Especially with Geinin season two right around the corner.
Umeda: she definitely made the most of her senbatsu spot, but lately she’s been out of the spotlight a bit. I wonder that the ken Koba action on XX helped her regain some more momentum. Top 16 should still be within her reach, but it’ll be close.
Akicha: IF they include her, maybe she gained the support of the Indonesian fans, but I doubt she'll climb back into senbatsu.
Sayanee VS
Milky: If the PB sales are any indication Milky is edging ahead. Not to mention the extra exposure she’s getting by being a proper AKB member now. With all the AKB girls graduating they both might be able to enter senbatsu this time.
Sayaka VS
Amina VS
Mocchi: with the massive increase of new gen pimpage I doubt they’ll be able to rise. Solid undergirls.
Paruru: the media is very powerful and there is no doubt she will rise. The question is by how much. I’m still very conflicted. At times I think she’s super cute and funny, but other times she’s boring and annoying. I can see why Aki-P uses the Cinderella tactic, but she’s not a princess just yet. One of the issues I have with Paru (and all the Team 4 girls) is that their clique is too strong. They don’t really interact outside of their box that much. edit: after adding the color coding I'm convinced Paru will make top #12.
Yuka: gone.
SKE48Akane: might get protest votes because Rie took her spot. Don’t mess with the captain!
Hata: gone.
Masana: never really got why she always ranks this high, so we’ll see.
Kumi: gone.
Akarin: still going strong. Variety talent which will surely increase her ranking.
Airi: still massively underrated, but she doesn’t get the exposure to improve her position.
Yuria: with Kuumin gone Yuria’s been pushed more towards the front. I think she’s pretty damn popular, so I think she’ll go up.
Ogiso: gone.
New faces!AKB48AnRiRe: have been pushed to death, but didn’t rank last year at all. Will this year be any different? I say yes. At least Kawaei should rank, or they’ve wasted massive resources. I'm not a big fan of any of the Team 4 girls, but I hope they step up their game for AKB48's sake.
Iwata Karen: 0048 power and charity icon.
Kotani Riho?
Okada Nana? I believe.
SKE48Suga Nanako: builds robots! Geek wota rejoice! Lol
Furuhata Nao: handshake queen. She’ll rank for sure.
NMB48Fuuko: still up and coming. G the TV magazine cover, etc. She failed to make an impression on Pon!, but when you're up against girls like Ogasawara then it's that much harder to stand out.
Yoshida Akari?
HKT48Now this is where it’s going to be interesting. First of all, last year we only had five NMB girls and only one HKT girl (Sakura). This year there will be plenty of open spots due to graduations so how will they be filled? For the sake of argument, I think we can expect at least 3~5 HKT48 member in the ranking. Excluding Sasshi and Lovetan, there are plenty of candidates:
Sakura: no doubt about that.
Haruppi: didn’t quit make it as the ace, but still popular and gaining new fans.
Meru: pushed as the group’s center, but can she live up the to the expectations?
Mio: the true KKS ace!
And I wouldn’t forget about
Murashige and
Anai as outsiders.
What do
you think? Let's try to have one thread with actual discussion!