[Discuss] The Next Ace

[SomethingWild]

Now that the dust of the Senbatsu Election, the Tokyo Dome Concerts, the Team Shuffle and Maeda Atsuko's graduation is settling, let's try to form some perspectives on the future of AKB48.

I know everybody has their own favorites, but fact is that Komori Mika will never lead AKB48. Let's try to look objectively at the girls and try to determine if they have what it takes to become the next (f)ace of AKB48 for the upcoming years. In the poll I included the most likely candidates + girls who ranked up a lot during the last senbatsu election.

What are your thoughts? Don't be lazy, explain why! 


My random thoughts:

Oshima Yuko
Pro: Highly popular, very well rounded, great at everything she does
Con: IIRC she wanted to graduate already, but then Acchan beat her to it. In addition, I think she might be too extreme. She doesn't care about touching boobs, getting a new extreme hairstyle, etc. etc. We love her for it, but that's not typical idol behavior. Like she says, she's an entertainer. I think she'll be happier outside AKB48 where she can do things more freely and pursue her own goals.
Sum: I think Yuko will be the short-term ace to fill the gap. I honestly don't see her staying in AKB48 for longer than a year.

Watanabe Mayu
Pro: She's been around longer than most of the other contenders, yet she's still relatively young. Idol aura. Experienced in singing and acting. Loved by many.
Con: Does she have enough variety/media skills to represent the group as a whole?
Sum: IMO, Mayu is THE candidate. She's young enough to last at least another four years in the group and she'll only get better at what she does.

Kashiwagi Yuki
Pro: Classic idol. Great voice.
Con: I think she lacks a bit of appeal to really pull in new fans. A bit too plain, perhaps? Acchan was plain, but she really had that girl next door charm.
Sum: As much as I like Yuki, I can't see her becoming the new face.

Matsui Jurina
Pro: Amazing talent. Truly a great idol. Still very young.
Con: Maybe too young? She's been sick a lot, so they're definitely overworking her. Secondly, Jurina's push and the "SKE48 invasion in AKB48" has always lead to a lot of haters. Even though I think people have gotten used to it by now.
Sum: She'll always be among the top and she'll be a great rival to Mayu. It's going to be interesting to see how she develops and how her look will change.

Shimazaki Haruka
Pro: Same classic look as Yuki has. The type of girl you want to protect, haha. Her "my pace" character is also reminiscent of Acchan. Same age as Mayu.
Con: She doesn't seem to be great at either singing or acting. Has a lot of haters due to her being pushed in MG3, etc.
Sum: They're setting the new ace battle up as a three way between Mayu, Jurina and Paruru. It's all over the media and that is how it will go down. No doubt about it. I can't see Paruru coming out ahead over Mayu and J though. Trivia: she is on Yama-chan's radar:



Yokoyama Yui
Pro: Classic beauty, girl next door vibes galore.
Con: Bit too plain as well? She's not the type who speaks up a lot or stands out in a crowd.
Sum: She's always be a personal favorite, but she needs more confidence if she wants to take on a larger role.

Watanabe Miyuki
Pro: Fresh, not afraid to speak up, same age as Mayu and Paru.
Con: Her flirting nature may lose her some female fans?
Sum: Not sure, because she definitely has potential. Should be interesting to see her develop and to see what role she'll take within AKB48.

Sashihara Rino: Her future lies elsewhere. She'll keep kicking ass in variety. Oh, and she was kicked out of AKB48. lol
Takahashi Minami: In some ways she already is the face, but her role within AKB48 is a different one. She's the leader, she has other tasks than the ace.
Kojima Haruna: She'll always be among the top, but she's getting too old to be taking on the face role at this point, especially as long as Yuko is still around.

[Amplifier]

Jurina >= Mayu > every other option.

Just give J 2-3 years, and it's game over for everyone else.

[Rust]

Realistically I think the real contenders are Jurina, Mayuyu, & Paruru.

Skill-wise & character-wise, my belief is Jurina > Mayu >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Paruru. 

Jurina is skilled at dancing, acting, has leadership qualities, steel determination to work through her tough schedule, natural talent for stages, mental toughness to handle the initial hates she got when she first arrived at the scene, & great relationship with many members, with Rena, Mariko, & Tomochin just to name a few. Jurina also seems to have the additional fans in the older generation, whom view her like a son daughter.

Mayu is skilled at singing & acting, knows how to draw, & have a natural aura as an idol. Her aura is even frequently noted by fellow members & her popularity extend to females & children. She also have good relationship with most, if not all, of the power members, e.g. Yuko (oshiri sisters), Jurina (MG2), Yukirin (mother), Miyuki (wWatanabe), other AKB senbatsu member adores her, Paruru idolize her, etc.

Paruru's weakness, in my opinion, is that she does't have a strong suit (at least not yet) to match Jurina or Mayu in terms of skill set. She is not a very good actress to put it politely.    Her singing & dancing doesn't stand out like Jurina or Mayu. She isn't nearly as interesting as the above two in showbiz. I heard rumours that she doesn't have good reception of fans in handshake events too (while the above two excel at such); this if true, also pose another major weakness. She doesn't have a lot (if any) "power-relationship" in comparison to the above two. Lastly, her reaction & speech at the senbatsu election was well, disappointing. Certainly there is still time for her to improve on all these, & I would love to see Paruru develop her own strenghts. Sadly she is the same age as Mayu, meaning time is running short real fast. As such, Paruru is, in my opinion, not set to overtake either Jurina or Mayu is the battle for the ace.


The above consider only characters & skill sets. Realistically however, I have difficulties seeing Jurina overtaking Mayu in becoming AKB center. The simple reason is her place in SKE. My feeling is that for her to become official member in AKB, there will be a lot of negative reactions from both fans in AKB & SKE. Jurina herself loves SKE, & making her an official AKB center will be really difficult for her too.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, it is still possible for Jurina to become overall center, but only if SKE surpass AKB, which organizationally I think is really hard.

[SomethingWild]

Nonetheless, in my opinion, it is still possible for Jurina to become overall center, but only if SKE surpass AKB, which organizationally I think is really hard.

SKE48 overtaking AKB48 is impossible. I'm convinced that will never happen. Even Matsui Rena said SKE48 has always been riding on AKB48's wave, even though that probably gives SKE48 too little credit. However, IMO SKE48 position is not vital for Jurina's success in AKB48.

When it comes to Jurina VS Mayu there are some things that come to mind.

1. Mayu is much more mature. I mean that in a mental way. Mayu has learned to lose. She's very smart she's been thinking about her role in AKB48 and her image for many years. Jurina is more like a wild puppy, if that makes sense in this context.

2. The terrible teens. Jurina is facing some difficult years. Many distractions will come on her path and we don't know if she'll be tempted. Mayu has made it clear she has zero interest in real life boys. Furthermore, Jurina has been worked so hard we don't know if her body will be able to cope. She may have to tone it down a notch. Finally, her appearance will change further. She can become a gorgeous woman (like Mayu), become more manly or become... fat. 

I guess what I'm saying is that Mayu's position is more guaranteed than Jurina. Of course that doesn't take away Jurina's potential to become huge, but we're not there yet. That's why I see Mayu as absolute center with J in more of a side-kick role for the next years.

As for Paruru, they're doing whatever they can to put her on the map. We know mass media is a very powerful tool, so I think it's too early to dismiss her. But yeah, seeing her competition she doesn't have same the skills of appeal just yet.

[SomethingWild]

 
I lolled. Yeah, we ain't seen the last of Paruru. 

[Phantom]

I don't really understand what is with this Paru pushing. I don't mind her, in fact I kinda like her, but she doesn't have any presence and she seems too unskilled and fresh to become the Ace. Perhaps in a few years, but I don't know. Put her next to Kojima Haruna, Shinoda Mariko or Oshima Yuko and you will barely notice she is there. They have some kind of aura brought by years of experience. I don't think Kojima for instance would make a great Ace either, it wouldn't fit her "character".

Jurina though, I really think that girl has what it takes, although I would give her another year at least. I guess Mayuyu has a shot, being second in the last senbatsu, but in that case I would personally prefer Oshima Yuko. And I like Mayuyu more then Oshima. It's all about who is suited to be the face of ABK, and some people just have more presence and fitting personality than others.

[yukofan]

oshima yuko : although she's my kami oshi, i don't want her to be the ace. she has many many activities and also team k's ace and captain. and she wants to graduate. being akb ace only increase her burden.

jurina : she has the quality to be an ace. but, i don't agree she become akb ace. she belongs to SKE48.

paruru : don't know much about this girl. no comment. but,she's management's favourite.

mayu : the best choice.young and popular (2nd place in election).

milky : she has idol quality.she knows how to tease male fans. but, she belongs to NMB48. and she's a flirt but, i think aki-p is one of aki-p's fav.

my choice goes to mayuyu.

[WindCaliber]

I think it's quite obvious that it boils down to four choices: Yuko, Mayuyu, Jurina,and Paruru.
There's not much to say that hasn't been already said, so basically,

Oshima Yuko: Like SomethingWild said, I think she is going to be a "temporary" ace, but an ace nonetheless. Mayu being an ace while Yuko is still in the group? Not going to happen. (In the event it does happen, someone hit me on the head).
Off Topic: When did Yuko say she want to graduate; is there an article somewhere?

Watanabe Mayu: It's been quite obvious that AKB has been grooming her to succeed the ace spot for a while. Like everyone else has said over and over again, she still has enough years left in the tank in addition to popularity to be a successful ace. She really gives off an idol vibe and a cutesy look, so that's a plus for her case I guess. I still don't particularly like her 

Matsui Jurina: Definitely someone to watch out for, and the whole AKB/SKE dual membership thing made it viable to be an AKB48 ace without pissing off SKE fans of a transfer or AKB fans for having an SKE member as an AKB ace. I feel she's somewhat of an unconventional idol, however, and I think that she's going to be the Mayuyu of current AKB, the #2, but not quite the ace. I don't pay much attention at all to Jurina however so I can't say much else.

Shimazaki Haruka: Never understood why management decided to push her, but they push random people excessively sometimes, so oh well. To keep it short, there's no reason for her to be the ace of AKB. If anything, they might transfer her to be the ace of another group, LoL  :|

[YKT]

By popular vote per the recent elections, Oshima Yuko was the clear winner over 2nd place, Watanabe Mayu.  Even today, her mixi and G+ numbers are way above 2nd place, Watanabe Mayu.  Frankly, I don't think Watanabe Mayu can ever close the gap.

But recently, Oshima Yuko was chosen by Management to be Team K's Captain.   Does Management see her as both Ace and Captain?  The topic is "The Next Ace."  I think Watanabe Mayu (whose strengths have been mentioned by both Rust and SomethingWild above) will be the Next Ace.

[juara_dunia2006]

short term until 1 year: Oshima Yuko
1 - 2 years: Watanabe Mayu or Matsui Jurina or Shimazaki Haruka
> 2 years: Iriyama Anna..

it's just my opinion though.

[winner]

Future Ace?

Definitely Mayuyu the CG.
A great performer. Her idol aura is amazing. She's interesting. She's still fresh to the average japan person (compared to Yuko, which everyone knows), with everyone screaming kawaii. And she's gained an army of loyal fans.
One thing I don't think anyone has talked about. She is currently like 18! That's young. So can anyone picture how hot she will be when she does her 20yo adult ceremony-thing and probably gets a different hairstyle?!! This world will be totally destroyed and turned into heaven.
Actually, an important thing is I think Mayuyu's mindset is getting more serious about supporting AKB48 as a pillar. Which is probably what turned Acchan into such a great center. Turning responsibility into a positive motivation.

Yuko the current ace.
And she may outclass Acchan and Mayuyu as a performer/entertainer. I think most of us think Yuko was born to join this industry.
But I also think that every future day she's in AKB, she's doing it for the group. And its just slowing her imminent career as a drama actress/stage actress/singer/dancer/geinin/entertainer/chicken/model/host/Japan Representative of Peace to America/Bond Girl/etc...
Darn, Yuko should be a Bond Girl...
Course, I'd like to see Yuko stay for another year... or five. But I think it isn't as the center, but as the person that all members look up to and want to become.

I honestly cannot imagine Yukirin becoming ace, even with the sudden surge of fans in the past 1-2 years.
She's magic when on stage performing. And, pardon my kami-oshi bias-ness, she's damn beautiful!!
But have any of you seen a show where she doesn't have her hand covering her mouth 70% + bulging eyes 20% of the time?
Yeah, kinda boring after the 1000th time (every single time I want to see her do more).
Yuki's pure idol girl next-door image is also her greatest weakness. Compared to the others here who're really interesting. I don't see her making a trend like Acchan and Yuko have.
On the other hand, I'm absolutely happy as is. I hoped she'd get 2nd-3rd in senbatsu, center position comes with a lot of challenges/responsibilities/pressure. Yuki's current older-sister chara does a great level of "heal-ability" to fans. And I think that is what the management team want the most with AKB (other than bringing in the $). To create a positive and caring image of the group. Not the group that does swimsuit MVs each year.Their support with the earthquake relief support is a note of this. And Yukirin has the right image for it.
And I think Yuki's current position is letting her do this to her greatest extent. Which may be how Yuki herself likes it most, further giving her one of the best reasons to stay.

The first thing that always comes to mind when talking about Jurina.
How impressed I was when seeing her perform so well in Macau, and later knowing she wasn't feeling well but still chose to perform. That's nearly 2 years ago, and it threw any grudges I had of her appearing in AKB singles. How could I dislike a person trying so hard not to disappoint fans.
I don't think she'll be AKB's center though. Her image as SKE's center is too strong. And the balance of J's guyish win-everything/coolness and Rena's girly lose-everything/cute is an obstacle. C'mon, most guys that follow jpop idols like traditional idols who're cute and girly. J would have to follow Yuko's path of earning her popularity through years of performances to get the ace position. Which... actually isn't that hard to imagine!
Still, I think a Mayu/J or W Matsui double-ace situation would be much more easily created.

Paruru is a shaky candidate. Remember how it started with that WORLD GIRLS mag photo with her representing the future of AKB, and everyone going "huh?".
Her popularity is right there with the Undergirls now. And seeing girls with great potential like Akicha, Aamin and Lovetan being stopped in their tracks, you'll get a good idea that just being pushed isn't always enough (Sasshi's popularity is a totally different case though. I still think the investment turned out bad. Putting AKB in an awfully awkward position, unable to stop pushing her, now they they've used so much resources on her. She's still showing up with all stuff AKB like nothing ever happened).
Haruka may not have the popularity. But she does have youth on her side, can she pull a Mayuyu?

But if I had a gamble, I'd rather choose Muto Tomu.
I can see her potential. I think she looks prettier too, just a little short. And her name is like some endless reverse echo.

Yuihan would make an awesome ace. maybe in a year or two.
Unbelievably hard-working, great performer, classic Kyoto beauty. Her my-pace attitude making laughs everywhere, while adding a little mystery/interest into her character. Her MV's theme would be really strange though.
Too bad she doesn't have a strong enough fanbase yet. I can wait.

[Rust]

Just gonna add some stuff as to why Jurina & Mayuyu dominate the conversation. 
I believe there one more character shared by both Jurina & Mayuyu that lift them above the fray, & that is their versatility. This thought came to me as I was watching the SSA Concert videos of both. For examples, Jurina is defined as someone really cool or super genki, not the typical cutesy image shared by idols in general. However, Jurina can imitate such style really well, at least that is my feeling from watching her performance of Sore demo sukidayo.
[DVD]それでも好きだよ - 松井珠理奈 SSA第三天—在线播放—优酷网，视频高清在线观看
I was a little bit disoriented at first when seeing her performing this song. Yet the tune of her voice, & the dance she performed, really make me felt that she was really cute in this performance. Frankly speaking, I love her voice singing this song, & I like it more then Sasshi's version (no disrespect to her.)


Mayu, too, can accomplish such. Examples include several photo shoot she had taken, where she can look really mature easily. While her style is the cutesy style shared by general idols, her vocal is versatile enough to perform songs not cutesy in nature, a example from the SSA Concert will be the her performance of Mujin Eki.
[DVD]無人駅 - 渡辺麻友 SSA第三天—在线播放—优酷网，视频高清在线观看



And just to add to the conversation, I want to discuss about the up & coming ace of the new Team A, K, & B. The discussion about who will be the ace seems to be a consensus of: Yuko as ace for now, Mayu>Jurina, Paruru need a lot more work, etc.

So, for Team A, it seems like Mayu will be the pillar ace & will be groomed to lead AKB. Mariko is the Captain, Takamina the GM, & considering their age, they are unlikely to take on the position of the ace. I also think Sumire & Iriyama have potential to be the runner-up ace. While Sumire never took off popularity-wise, I do think (& believe many other do too) that she possess the skill sets & character to be successful. A new start in Team A might rekindle her career. She is older then Mayu thou, so time is a issue. Iriyama, on the other hand, have what I believe is the best agency among all AKB agencies (I think this is a consensus). She look gorgeous, & left a positive impression for me on MG3 despite barely doing anything!

For Team K, I think they are a little short on up-&-coming prospect in comparison to established players, like Yuko & Tomochin. If anyone has potential to be Team K's next ace, I think is Mutou Tomu. She look fierce as center for future girls, & her style fit Team K really well imo. Already having enough popularity to rank 49 also doesn't hurt.

Team B, on the other hand, seems more stacked in terms of prospect, while the established players are weaker then the aforementioned teams. Paruru is somewhat established as a result of the pushing she received, & ranked 23, which is the second highest I believe of member from her generation (the highest being Yui.) I think her position is vulnerable however, as both Ishida Anna & Kato Rena is here. Ishida Anna imo is very similar to Sumire. She has the personality & the skill sets to be successful, & was expected to be, but never took off popularity-wise. Anna is a stronger prospect imo however because he never had the chance to participate in AKB48, plus the fact she is younger (16 y.o. I believe, heck, making her younger then Paruru!.) As for Kato Rena, frankly speaking, I wouldn't have listed her here have it not been for the SSA. Renachi performed Seifiku Resistance in SSA with Jurina & Miyuki, & instead of having her presence reduced by the two established players beside her, I felt that she shined & more then stand her ground; the resulting performance I enjoyed very much. Renachi also performed Heart Shape Virus with two other Rena, & that performance, too, I felt she did really well. Additionally, renachi is even younger than Anna (15 y.o. I believe.) While her popularity hasn't took off at all unfortunately, I do think if she is given the same amount of push as Paruru (& she is a management favorite I believe), she can be more successful than Paruru.
[DVD]制服レジスタンス - 松井珠理奈、渡辺美優紀、加藤玲奈—在线播放—优酷网，视频高清在线观看
[DVD]ハート型ウイルス - 加藤玲奈、松井玲奈、藤江れ いな SSA第三天—在线播放—优酷网，视频高清在线观看

The above, of course, are personal observation from someone living far, far away from Japan & never seen a stage ever. 
Critique as appropriate plz!

[mae]

i think the next ace is Oshima Yuko or Watanabe Mayu after i don't no

[SomethingWild]

I lolled. Yeah, we ain't seen the last of Paruru. 

Shimazaki Haruka wins the 29th Janken Tournament!!!

Totally called it. 

[Amplifier]

Jurina >= Mayu > every other option.

Just give J 2-3 years, and it's game over for everyone else.

Aaaaaaaand the new single confirms Jurina for next ace.

SUBMIT

[SomethingWild]

It's going down exactly as "they" planned...

Gingham Check: Mayu (+Yuko)
UZA: Jurina (+Yuko)
Janken: Paruru

One last check to see who will thrive? Even though I'd say Mayu and Jurina have already proven themselves worthy. It's gonna be interesting to see what Paru will make of it. I wonder if the janken song, pv, etc. are going to be super epic with high budget spending just to make her look good.

[freakonboard]

↑ Shimazaki Haruka did manage to rank #28 in 2nd Sousenkyo (at that time she didn't get extensive pushing compared to lately), so she has a potential.

[m00nchild]

In my mind for the new ace for AKB got 3 ppl,
Oshima Yuko - she can lead the whole team with her cheerful.
Matsui Jurina - due she already the center of SKE48 but she also got % to be AKB as well.
Watanabe Mayu - she have an unknown ability, due we also see her popularity boost just 2 years have taken 2nd of the *what* ranking,
with this 3 ppl, I feel that they will be the next ace or center for the AKB48.

I think others 1st generation and 2nd generation have to work more harder, due now that Acchan already graduation this is the chance.

[SomethingWild]

They've been promoting this three way ace battle for years now in various shows, but all through subliminal messaging 





I believe.


I think that list Jurina mentioned is pretty good:
Acchan --> Mayu (Ace/Face, drawing in new people)
Yuko --> Jurina (Entertainer, good at variety, good performer)
Takamina --> Yui (Reliability, leadership)
Rena --> Paru (Pale with black hair silent type, not for everybody but still among the top).
Yukirin --> Milky (Flirty, girly)
Akimoto --> Yamamoto

She also mentioned Sae --> Haruu, but I don't really see it.
Sae has that real ikemen vibe that makes all the other girls fall in love with her. Haruu is a different type of manly. 

[WindCaliber]

They've been promoting this three way ace battle for years now in various shows, but all through subliminal messaging 





I believe.

But that was this year