JPHiP Radio (17/200 @ 128 kbs)     Now playing: The Brilliant Green - I`m in Heaven

Author Topic: Offical MLB Thread!  (Read 338012 times)

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1320 on: December 24, 2009, 12:22:26 AM »
Yeah, low risk-high reward.  Hey, wasn't that the MO of Theo Epstein last off-season?

The past couple years. I've just taken to calling them lotto tickets. Signings like Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny, Saito, John Smoltz, etc, etc. You invest at most a million or two and take a shot.

Offline Saburo

  • 愛の戦士
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 5821
  • Karaoke is my life
    • Tanikaze
    • Tanikaze
Strat-O-Matic
« Reply #1321 on: December 24, 2009, 12:42:25 AM »
Rany Jazayerli tweeted a link to an old BP piece he wrote years ago, an appreciation of Strat-O-Matic

Cool how the board game is still relevant today.  I got a scan of Barry Bonds's 2001 card and it's still a thing to behold...

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Strat-O-Matic
« Reply #1322 on: December 24, 2009, 12:46:43 AM »
Rany Jazayerli tweeted a link to an old BP piece he wrote years ago, an appreciation of Strat-O-Matic

Cool how the board game is still relevant today.  I got a scan of Barry Bonds's 2001 card and it's still a thing to behold...

That piece is likely a rip of the opening chapter to a great book I've been reading in spurts for a while (given they're both from 2001):

http://www.amazon.com/Curve-Ball-Baseball-Statistics-Chance/dp/0387988165

Offline Saburo

  • 愛の戦士
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 5821
  • Karaoke is my life
    • Tanikaze
    • Tanikaze
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1323 on: December 29, 2009, 09:01:10 PM »
Jason Bay to the Metropolitans: four years, $66 million?!

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1324 on: December 29, 2009, 10:16:53 PM »
lol at taking a 4 year deal after all that

Offline Saburo

  • 愛の戦士
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 5821
  • Karaoke is my life
    • Tanikaze
    • Tanikaze
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1325 on: December 29, 2009, 10:29:02 PM »
Was the Mets' offer really on the table for three (3) weeks?!!  I guess they gave him a better offer than Beirut.

They shoulda paid extra for Holliday.

Offline Saburo

  • 愛の戦士
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 5821
  • Karaoke is my life
    • Tanikaze
    • Tanikaze
Tim Raines belongs in the Hall of Fame...
« Reply #1326 on: December 31, 2009, 08:32:00 PM »
The race is on!

Rock Raines for the HOF!  Rob Neyer chimed in.

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1327 on: January 01, 2010, 03:40:15 PM »
YOUR Hall of Fame ballot (not who you think will get in):

Alomar
Blyleven
E-Mart
McGwire
Raines
Trammell

Probably Barry Larkin as well, though him I'm least certain about.

Offline Mucca

  • Go! Amazon Goddess!
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 697
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1328 on: January 01, 2010, 11:47:34 PM »
Robbie Alomar
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin (I can't stump for Tram and not Larkin; they were very similar)
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

I'm on the fence about Edgar Martinez. He has great rates, and had a handful of really great individual seasons, but I don't know -- his lack of counting stats, utter lack of baserunning skills and inability to play the field (or stay healthy back when he could play 3B) count against him, in my opinion. That being said, I'm not actively against his induction and don't think it would be a huge injustice if he were elected.

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1329 on: January 02, 2010, 12:50:11 AM »
Robbie Alomar
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin (I can't stump for Tram and not Larkin; they were very similar)
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

I'm on the fence about Edgar Martinez. He has great rates, and had a handful of really great individual seasons, but I don't know -- his lack of counting stats, utter lack of baserunning skills and inability to play the field (or stay healthy back when he could play 3B) count against him, in my opinion. That being said, I'm not actively against his induction and don't think it would be a huge injustice if he were elected.

Edgar Martinez was, by a healthy margin, the 2nd greatest DH of all time to Frank Thomas. Ortiz may have some individual seasons that are at his level for DH seasons, but it's pretty clearly #1 Thomas, #2 E-Mart at that "position". Tied for 39th all time in OPS+ with (ignoring Berkman who will fall back) McCovey, ARod, Schmidt, and Stargell at 147.

8672 PA isn't a TON of playing time, but above 8000-8500 that's really a normal HoF quality career length (Jim Rice was 9000 and change, eg). Plus, as you noted, he wasn't even a pure DH. For roughly 1/4th his career he was a serviceable 3rd baseman, something that dabs additional value on his case. If Edgar Martinez isn't a HoFer, then really no DH is (other than Frank Thomas who really made his HoF case as a 1B).

Offline Mucca

  • Go! Amazon Goddess!
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 697
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1330 on: January 02, 2010, 01:25:54 AM »
Well, that's kind of the thing -- I don't think, right now, many DHs deserve the Hall of Fame outside of Frank Thomas and perhaps Edgar (like I said, I'm on the fence...sometimes I think yes, sometimes no). Not because it's "not a position" or anything like that, but because there haven't been a whole lot of guys spending the majority of their playing time at DH until recently (except for perhaps Harold Baines, who I don't support -- and Harold still played over 1,000 games in the field). Unless David Ortiz turns it back around in a big way, I won't support him, either (and Edgar was way better than Ortiz, anyway).

But like I said, I won't lose any sleep if Edgar makes it in.

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1331 on: January 02, 2010, 02:31:59 AM »
Well, that's kind of the thing -- I don't think, right now, many DHs deserve the Hall of Fame outside of Frank Thomas and perhaps Edgar (like I said, I'm on the fence...sometimes I think yes, sometimes no). Not because it's "not a position" or anything like that, but because there haven't been a whole lot of guys spending the majority of their playing time at DH until recently (except for perhaps Harold Baines, who I don't support -- and Harold still played over 1,000 games in the field). Unless David Ortiz turns it back around in a big way, I won't support him, either (and Edgar was way better than Ortiz, anyway).

But like I said, I won't lose any sleep if Edgar makes it in.


Molitor, Thomas, Thome, E-Martinez. All 4 have significant DH time (Thome's career leaves him as a 1B/DH not a DH/1B, but I'd put him in this group. After all lots of people call Molitor the only DH in the HoF, and he had a similar proportion of his career at DH) and are, IMO, a good start class for HoF DHs. Thomas as the clear ace of the group, Thome as the very strong #2, and E-Mart/Molitor filling out the group. If that defines it guys like Ortiz or Mo Vaughn are clearly not in and you avoid any kind of inflation like we've seen with relievers the past few years.

Offline Saburo

  • 愛の戦士
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 5821
  • Karaoke is my life
    • Tanikaze
    • Tanikaze
Hall of Whatever
« Reply #1332 on: January 02, 2010, 02:55:40 AM »
YOUR Hall of Fame ballot (not who you think will get in):

I voted at Joe Pos's site.  If memory serves:

B. Blyleven
T. Raines
M. McGwire
R. Alomar
A. Trammell
B. Larkin
E. Martinez
D. Murphy


Any predictions?  I think it's possible the BBWAA will elect NO one again.  I am full of fear...

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Hall of Whatever
« Reply #1333 on: January 02, 2010, 03:07:42 AM »
YOUR Hall of Fame ballot (not who you think will get in):

I voted at Joe Pos's site.  If memory serves:

B. Blyleven
T. Raines
M. McGwire
R. Alomar
A. Trammell
B. Larkin
E. Martinez
D. Murphy


Any predictions?  I think it's possible the BBWAA will elect NO one again.  I am full of fear...


Oh heck no. Alomar almost certainly gets in, Dawson may (unfortunately) get in, and Blyleven continues to slowly plod along. Larkin has a good shot too.

Why Dale Murphy? He's just a crummier Jim Rice, who really didn't deserve his entry.

Offline Mucca

  • Go! Amazon Goddess!
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 697
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1334 on: January 02, 2010, 03:24:18 AM »
Molitor, Thomas, Thome, E-Martinez. All 4 have significant DH time (Thome's career leaves him as a 1B/DH not a DH/1B, but I'd put him in this group. After all lots of people call Molitor the only DH in the HoF, and he had a similar proportion of his career at DH) and are, IMO, a good start class for HoF DHs. Thomas as the clear ace of the group, Thome as the very strong #2, and E-Mart/Molitor filling out the group. If that defines it guys like Ortiz or Mo Vaughn are clearly not in and you avoid any kind of inflation like we've seen with relievers the past few years.

I forgot about Molitor and Thome, even though neither of them spent the majority of their careers as a DH like Edgar and Thomas; and with Thome at least, I don't really view him as a DH because he's spent 70% of his career so far in the field (compared to 56% for Molitor, 42% for Big Hurt and 29% for Edgar). Additionally, Molitor's a weird case because of all his position switching, but he did play more games in the field (just not at any one position). That being said, Molitor doesn't make the HoF without his DH years. Also, I do think counting stats matter a little bit in making a HoF case, and outside of doubles and walks Edgar's career totals aren't that impressive, especially considering he played in an era of increased offense.

But again, I don't think it would be some great injustice if Edgar got in.

As for actual predictions, Dawson or Blyleven might get in, but I wouldn't count on it. I don't think Larkin or Martinez get in...not on the first ballot, at least. But the baseball writers are so screwy with their selections that predicting is pretty much a fool's game.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2010, 03:37:41 AM by Mucca »

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1335 on: January 02, 2010, 05:06:10 AM »
Molitor, Thomas, Thome, E-Martinez. All 4 have significant DH time (Thome's career leaves him as a 1B/DH not a DH/1B, but I'd put him in this group. After all lots of people call Molitor the only DH in the HoF, and he had a similar proportion of his career at DH) and are, IMO, a good start class for HoF DHs. Thomas as the clear ace of the group, Thome as the very strong #2, and E-Mart/Molitor filling out the group. If that defines it guys like Ortiz or Mo Vaughn are clearly not in and you avoid any kind of inflation like we've seen with relievers the past few years.

I forgot about Molitor and Thome, even though neither of them spent the majority of their careers as a DH like Edgar and Thomas; and with Thome at least, I don't really view him as a DH because he's spent 70% of his career so far in the field (compared to 56% for Molitor, 42% for Big Hurt and 29% for Edgar). Additionally, Molitor's a weird case because of all his position switching, but he did play more games in the field (just not at any one position). That being said, Molitor doesn't make the HoF without his DH years. Also, I do think counting stats matter a little bit in making a HoF case, and outside of doubles and walks Edgar's career totals aren't that impressive, especially considering he played in an era of increased offense.

But again, I don't think it would be some great injustice if Edgar got in.

As for actual predictions, Dawson or Blyleven might get in, but I wouldn't count on it. I don't think Larkin or Martinez get in...not on the first ballot, at least. But the baseball writers are so screwy with their selections that predicting is pretty much a fool's game.

My issue with counting stats is they're just a messier way of looking at, more fundamentally, rate stats and playing time. Those are each individual measures of actual value (how good you were at offense/defense and how often you put that skill to use) as opposed to a messier stat that says the .300 hitter over 1000 AB is the same as a .150 hitter over 2000 AB, eg.

Offline Saburo

  • 愛の戦士
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 5821
  • Karaoke is my life
    • Tanikaze
    • Tanikaze
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1336 on: January 02, 2010, 10:32:08 PM »
Why Dale Murphy? He's just a crummier Jim Rice, who really didn't deserve his entry.

It's close, real close.

At the end of the day it's personal prejudice.  But for that six-year run (1982-1987) he had as good a peak period as your typical HOF member, maybe more.  What killed him was his decline, which was more drastic and atypical of what BBWAA voters judge as Hall-worthy.

The likes of Dawson, Nolan Ryan, Ripken and Craig Biggio (ouch) had longer stretches of average quality at the tail end, padding the counting stats.  Murphy's decline was so steep and precipitous that it seemed to overshadow all that he accomplished beforehand.  So he didn't have the counting stats (400-500 HR) and probably not the monster peak seasons that voters notice in shorter careers (Koufax, Dizzy Dean).

So how does that explain Bruce Sutter?  Anyway when I was at Posnanski's site I put myself in the role of a BBWAA voter and figured, what the hell.

As for Rice vs. Murphy...  I'd like to see ballpark effects for Fenway and Fulton-County Stadium.  It might bridge the gap.  Also Murphy's peak seasons were at a key defensive position, confirmed by the five Gold Gloves.  Yeah, Gold Gloves are an iffy yardstick (I'd be surprised if Roberto Alomar deserved half of his) but they're not given out to just anyone and Jim Ed never got within sniffing distance of one. 

Offline stax

  • Lucy Liu-ser
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 3633
Re: Offical MLB Thread!
« Reply #1337 on: January 03, 2010, 05:58:25 AM »
Why Dale Murphy? He's just a crummier Jim Rice, who really didn't deserve his entry.

It's close, real close.

At the end of the day it's personal prejudice.  But for that six-year run (1982-1987) he had as good a peak period as your typical HOF member, maybe more.  What killed him was his decline, which was more drastic and atypical of what BBWAA voters judge as Hall-worthy.

The likes of Dawson, Nolan Ryan, Ripken and Craig Biggio (ouch) had longer stretches of average quality at the tail end, padding the counting stats.  Murphy's decline was so steep and precipitous that it seemed to overshadow all that he accomplished beforehand.  So he didn't have the counting stats (400-500 HR) and probably not the monster peak seasons that voters notice in shorter careers (Koufax, Dizzy Dean).

So how does that explain Bruce Sutter?  Anyway when I was at Posnanski's site I put myself in the role of a BBWAA voter and figured, what the hell.

As for Rice vs. Murphy...  I'd like to see ballpark effects for Fenway and Fulton-County Stadium.  It might bridge the gap.  Also Murphy's peak seasons were at a key defensive position, confirmed by the five Gold Gloves.  Yeah, Gold Gloves are an iffy yardstick (I'd be surprised if Roberto Alomar deserved half of his) but they're not given out to just anyone and Jim Ed never got within sniffing distance of one.  

The difference with the stick-it-out guys like Nolan Ryan (Andre Dawson isn't close to the same level) is that being a decent pitcher still has value. A decline is a decline. If you want to get in purely on peak it had better be like Sandy Koufax style dominance, not just HoF good. David Cone had a HoF good period

In fact, here's a fun comparison:

David Cone, 88-99: 3.15 ERA (131 ERA+) over 2468.0 IP
Tom Glavine, 91-02: 3.15 ERA (134 ERA+) over 2698.2 IP

Practically the same good-not-great peak. A 130s ERA+ is when you can start approaching HoF quality pitching. But the reason why Tom Glavine is (even ignoring 300 wins as I do) an edge HoF case and David Cone isn't is Glavine managed to stick around and at least be serviceable.

87 wasn't really a full season nor was his terrible finale 08. Outside of that he had effectively 1 bad full season in 88; 4 league average 200ish inning seasons in 89, 90, 03, and 07; and 3 pretty good years 04-06. All of that adds up to almost another 2000 innings of career pitching at a still pretty decent clip while Cone could only add on 400 more. In the same way there is a difference between Murphy (4000 good peak plate appearances from 82-87 at a 145 OPS+) and someone else, because he (as you said) fell off a cliff like Cone rather than plateauing nicely like Glavine.

Same reason I don't think Sammy Sosa isn't a HoFer. Outside of that peak (and I don't care about steroids) he was such and mediocre player. And even in that peak, other than one year, while it was good it wasn't like Ruth/Bonds/Williams/Gehrig great.

Offline Saburo

  • 愛の戦士
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 5821
  • Karaoke is my life
    • Tanikaze
    • Tanikaze
Baseball's top 10 stories of 2009
« Reply #1338 on: January 03, 2010, 09:08:48 AM »
Cliff Corcoran's top-ten list, in chronological order.

By far, MY #1 baseball memory in 2009 was the World Baseball Classic.  My rooting interest for Japan was deep and compelling -- nothing else mattered.  Even the Yankees winning it all (I'm partial to the NL) didn't tip the scales much.  It made my year.

Number two is the jaw-dropping pathetic and disgraceful umpiring in the postseason.  Jeez, we thought the "dropped" third strike in the '05 ALCS and Matt Holliday's slide in '06 were outliers.  I'm grateful I had no specific rooting interest for any of the eight teams playing.  I'd be breaking things left and right.

Third would be the Twins-Tigers AL Central playoff game.  I followed this game at work via streaming video and I'm not sure I got ANY work done.  Our computers don't have sound cards so I was spared the *FISTED* tones of Chipper Caray and the now-infamous RBI single...  oops, fly ball double play.

Offline Saburo

  • 愛の戦士
  • ecchi
  • Member+
  • Posts: 5821
  • Karaoke is my life
    • Tanikaze
    • Tanikaze
Best Players In Baseball
« Reply #1339 on: January 04, 2010, 08:01:29 PM »
Love Joe Pos for this: breaking down "The Best Player In Baseball" in separate five-year spans.

I'd respect B. Simmons a heck of a lot more if he cared about baseball a TENTH as much as Posnanski.  Or Jonah Keri.  Or Rob Neyer.  Or even Bob Costas for crissakes.

In other news, Craig Calcaterra said Murray Chass's HOF ballot was an outright disgrace.  I've no desire to see the carcass.

JPHiP Radio (17/200 @ 128 kbs)     Now playing: The Brilliant Green - I`m in Heaven