[2012.06.06] The 4th Senbatsu Election - *Results on page 10!*

[YKT]

Updated info:

AKB48 27th Single Senbatsu Election
※Or: AKB48 4th Senbatsu Election
　

Summary
Fans could take part in deciding AKB48 27th single senbatsu and coupling members, totalling to 4 groups containing 64 names.
Further, part of 26th single “Manatsu no Sounds Good!” sales would be donated for Touhoku Earthquake through Dareka no Tame ni project.

　
Candidate
・AKB48 (Team A: 15 names, Team K: 15 names, Team B: 15 names, Team 4: 16 names, Kenkyuusei: 27 names) Total: 88 names
・SKE48 (Team S: 14 names, Team KII: 16 names, Team E: 13 names, Kenkyuusei: 22 names) Total: 65 names
・NMB48 (Team N: 16 names, Team M: 16 names, Kenkyuusei: 34 names) Total: 66 names
・HKT48 (Team H: 16 names, Kenkyuusei: 5 names) Total: 21 names
Total all 240 names.
※AKB48 Team A Maeda Atsuko has withdrew from the election
　

Placement
※There are some changes from last year.
・Senbatsu member: 16 (rank 1-16)
※”Media senbatsu” system is removed.
・Group A (official name TBA): 16 (rank 17-32)
・Group B (official name TBA): 16 (rank 33-48)
・Group C (official name TBA): 16 (rank 49-64)
　

Voting Methods

1. A card with voting serial number included in AKB48 26th single “Manatsu no Sounds Good!” CD. 2. Member of AKB48 fanclub site, “Nihon Hashira no Kai” 3. AKB48 Mobile member 4. AKB48 Official Smartphone App. 5. AKB48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND monthly subscriber 6. AKB OFFICIAL NET member (AKB ISP) 7. SKE48 Mobile member 8. SKE48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND monthly subscriber 9. NMB48 Mobile member

　
Voting Period
22 May 2012 (Tuesday) 10.00 JST – 5 June 2012 (Tuesday) 14.59 JST
2012年5月22日(火)10:00:00～2012年6月5日(火)14:59:59
　

Announcements
・Quick count: 23 May (Wednesday) planned to be at AKB48 theater
・Announcement: 6 June (Wednesday) at Nippon Budoukan
　

Vote Counting
Like every year, third party that does not related with AKB48 will do the counting and is observed under attorney.

　
27th Single Release
Planned to be at August 2012

source:
http://journal.aif48.org/?p=14835
http://ameblo.jp/akihabara48/entry-11213131099.html

AKB48 27thシングル 選抜総選挙開催決定

本日のコンサートにて27thシングル 選抜総選挙開催の発表をさせて頂きましたので、ファンの皆様にご報告させて頂きます。

【タイトル】
AKB48　27thシングル 選抜総選挙

【開票】
2012年6月6日（水）日本武道館

選ばれるのは、６４名となります。

その６４名は

①１位～１６位
②１７位～３２位
③３３位～４８位
④４９位～６４位

の４つのグループに分けます。

※詳細につきましては後日、AKB48公式ブログにて発表させて頂きます。

Official Blog entry


For reference, the 3rd Senbatsu Election thread: http://forum.jphip.com/index.php?topic=29351.0

translation soon

[YKT]

The 4th Senbatsu Election has been confirmed per tgsk announcement on day 3 of SSA concerts.  The date is the same as previously posted above: June 6, 2012.



Anyone wanna start predicting the outcome?

[sakura_drop_]

I guess it's Yuko the number 1... Though now, when Acchan fans has to vote for someone else... Yuki also has some pretty good chances..

[Amplifier]

I guess it's Yuko the number 1... Though now, when Acchan fans has to vote for someone else... Yuki also has some pretty good chances..

I don't think it's too farfeteched for Acchan to stay throught the election, since they haven't released any details. Even if she doesn't, I'm hard pressed to believe Yuko is a shoe-in for #1 again, now.

[SomethingWild]

Anyone wanna start predicting the outcome?

I want to believe.

[pastil]

^
I wouldn't mind.

Since there's now 64 girls ranking, this makes me pretty tempted to send a vote for Micha and pray to kamisama. Pretty curious how the new system turns out.

[gekikarabuACE]

It's most likely that she'll have her graduation ceremony (alone, as I'd like to hope) at the Tokyo Dome Concert. If that happens after June 6th, then I think Acchan would still be no. 1. It'll be like a statement coming from her fans. Go out in a blaze of glory and all that jazz. Though that scenario is going to be problematic for the group later on since they have to rearrange everything once she leaves.

Other than that...

Predictions:
- Sasshi for Kami 8? Rena may have a shot as well, though it might not be as strong as Sasshi's.
- Yuihan in Top 16 or media senbatsu (would there be still such a thing as media senbatsu now that it's a four-tiered election? )
- Jurina back in media senbatsu
- Sae or Akicha (most probably Akicha) dropping from the media senbatsu line but still within top 16
- Not a prediction, but I'm hoping Akimoto Sayaka keeps her 17th position, in the off-chance that it's the center position for the 2nd tier (17-32)
- Churi and Sayanee sneaking into lower senbatsu

[Amplifier]

Anyone wanna start predicting the outcome?

I want to believe.

God willing..

- Yuihan in Top 16 or media senbatsu (would there be still such a thing as media senbatsu now that it's a four-tiered election? )

The top tier is probably just the new media senbatsu, and so forth. With so many girls now, it's not unreasonable to expand it all.

Anyway, hoping to see Mayu, Yui, and Rino all in the top five, or close to it.

[Heika88]

It's most likely that she'll have her graduation ceremony (alone, as I'd like to hope) at the Tokyo Dome Concert. If that happens after June 6th, then I think Acchan would still be no. 1. It'll be like a statement coming from her fans. Go out in a blaze of glory and all that jazz. Though that scenario is going to be problematic for the group later on since they have to rearrange everything once she leaves.

I think the same.
And even if I'm not that much fan of Acchan I her as the image of AKB48 and I comfess that she has the talent and she deserve the number 1 place for the new senbatsu election.

[SomethingWild]

- Maeda Atsuko: If she's part of the election then either the fans will 'invest' in a new girl or they will give her a massive send-off. I think the latter.
- Oshima Yuko: still going strong, definitely top #2.
- Kashiwagi Yuki: I was surprised at her #3 and I don't think she can maintain it. Mayu will overtake her this time. Top #5.
- Shinoda Mariko: I never really understood why she ranks so high all the time, but she'll probably maintain her position. I can see Mayu and Haruna overtaking her.
- Watanabe Mayu: has had an epic year, she'll make top #5 easily.
   
- Kojima Haruna: still going strong, definitely top #10
- Takahashi Minami: still going strong, might lose a spot to Itano or Sasshi 
- Itano Tomomi: very hard to predict... no idea.
- Sashihara Rino: still on fire, definitely #10 again.
- Matsui Rena: I think she'll drop a couple spots. Her heart doesn't seem into it and her serious comments may have rubbed some fans the wrong way. Still #12.

- Miyazawa Sae: haven't seen that much from her at all lately... Her MG role helped her a lot, but that's been a while. She might drop a spot.
- Takajo Aki: haven't seen much from her at all either, but then again, she never really stood out that much but still managed #12.
- Kitahara Rie: to me she doesn't stand out enough and I think she'll drop a bit.
- Matsui Jurina: she'll do fine, I think she'll go up.
- Minegishi Minami: No idea, I'm starting to like her more and more lately, so maybe others will too.

- Kasai Tomomi: she seems to be in a downward spiral... I feel bad for her and I doubt she'll do well this time.
- Akimoto Sayaka: I think she should be able to maintain her top #20 spot.
- Sato Amina: she seems to have her steady share of fans... Top #20 should work.
- Yokoyama Yui: people everywhere are falling for here and she'll go up tons of places.
- Masuda Yuka: plenty of good exposure lately, I think she should be able to go up a spot or two.

[chiyunon]

This is interesting, if Acchan is not there, most likely it will be Yuko again.
I bet some team 4 members like ranran and paruru will get lower senbatsu position
From SKE, I think Rena, Jurina, Churi and Kimoto Kanon will be chosen as well...
And Sayanee and Milky from NMB

My prediction for top 5:
1. Yuko
2. Yukirin
3. Shinoda
4. Mayuyu
5. Sashihara

[yukofan]

this year senbatsu election will be Acchan's..

[YKT]

- Kashiwagi Yuki: I was surprised at her #3 and I don't think she can maintain it. Mayu will overtake her this time. Top #5.

I don't think Mayu can overtake Yuki.  Yuki has a very strong WOTA following and her HS always sells out 1st round.  I hope Mayu doesn't fall below #5.

[Seigus]

If Acchan participates in the election, my prediction for the top 5:
1. Atsuko - She will win by a huge margin over the No.2 girl. Acchan fans will want to send her off in glory.
2. Yuko - Who else can beat this charismatic girl other than Acchan?
3. Yuki - As much as I want Mayuyu to rise and take the 3rd spot, I can't deny the fact that Yukirin seems to have more fans.
4. Mayu - Cyborg Girl has had lots of exposure recently and is proving to be worthy of the push she's getting. I'm sure she wouldn't mind much about losing to Yuki. Those two are too supportive of each other
5. Mariko - I believe she's still hugely popular in Japan so she'll stay in Top 5.

*Takamina may squeeze into the No.5 spot if AKB48 fans decide to show that they will still support the group despite Acchan's graduation by giving their votes to leader Takamina.

If Acchan doesn't participate in the election, my prediction for the top 10:
1. Yuko
2. Yuki
3. Mayu - I really want Mayuyu to get into Top 3 again and I believe she's capable of that.
4. Takamina - Acchan's fans may switch to supporting Takamina who is closest to Acchan.
5. Mariko
6. Sasshi
7. Haruna
8. Tomomi (Itano)
9. Rena
10. Jurina - Everyone can see how hard she's working and how much love she has for her job and SKE48. She should be able to get into Top 10 again.

[yukofan]

i'm sure acchan will participate in this senbatsu election..okay she has announced her graduation but she didn't say when, right? 

being #1 in her final times with AKB will bring great memory for acchan, the AKB's ace..

[SomethingWild]

Another year, another guidebook: CDJapan


If Acchan isn't included, in theory that means there will be 139,892 votes that can be spread out over the other members, thus making the results very unpredictable! Since the past elections were always Acchan VS Yuko, it's likely that a majority of those votes will not go to Yuko. Those Acchan fans might opt for Yuki (or Yui, or someone else) since she's more Acchan's type than Yuko. Who knows what will happen!

[Amplifier]

^Do guidebooks generally have any items like photos/posters included?

[gekikarabuACE]

If Acchan isn't included, in theory that means there will be 139,892 votes that can be spread out over the other members, thus making the results very unpredictable!

It's not far-fetch to think that a portion of those votes will disappear with Acchan, I think. But yea, the ones that won't disappear are fair game. Anyone can get those votes, though they might make their way to the remaining 1st gens (namely Takamina, Kojiharu and Tomochin).

Anyway, I think the crux of matter rests on Acchan's decision to join (or not) in the election. From the purely business perspective, she's almost guaranteed a 1st place finish by joining because fans would ensure that she graduates with a bang, which could hence take AKB's sales record to new heights. On the other hand, Acchan could always take the high road and decline from participating in the event since, you know, she's leaving for the sake of the kouhais. If that's the case, the this year's election would definitely be one to watch out for. The real (and exciting) battle has always been fought in the grounds of the under girls, but this time we really might get to see a shuffle in the higher echelons of AKB which, up until now, have been pretty much predictable. 

[winner]

^Do guidebooks generally have any items like photos/posters included?

think these are the posters for last year's guide.

[SomethingWild]

Let's use science!

This is the ranking of best sold goods on the 7net AKB shop:



This could be an indication for the results, which would be:

1. Yuki
2. Acchan
2. Mayu
3. Yuko
4. Sasshi
5. Haruna
6. Mariko
7. Takamina
8. Itano

Green: up
Red: down
Blue: same