[2012.06.06] The 4th Senbatsu Election - *Results on page 10!*

[Datalanche]

Glorious announcement, I'm pleased. Acchan out means an interesting and exciting election, now we can really speculate.

This. My interest in this election just increased ten fold.

[z3144228]

My prediction 1st team
Yuko Oshima
Yuki Kashiwagi
Mayu watanabe
Mariko Shinoda

Rino Sashihara
Minami Takahashi
Rena Matsui
Haruna Kojima

Tomomi Itano
Jurina Matsui
Aki Takajo
Rie Kitahara

Sae Miyazawa
Minami Minegishi
Tomomi Kasai
Yui Yokoyama

[Deaglezero]

Glorious announcement, I'm pleased. Acchan out means an interesting and exciting election, now we can really speculate.

This. My interest in this election just increased ten fold.

Same here. From a business perspective, letting the fans decide who the next face of akb will be the best option and will help stabilise future sales.

I predict a win for Yuki Kashiwagi, if we assume formerly diehard Maeda fans prefer her over Oshima-san.

[almond]

Same here. From a business perspective, letting the fans decide who the next face of akb will be the best option and will help stabilise future sales.

I predict a win for Yuki Kashiwagi, if we assume formerly diehard Maeda fans prefer her over Oshima-san.

The Yuko fans might go batshit crazy trying to ensure her victory, though.

I predict the Maeda votes will either go to Yuki (trying to prevent a Yuko win through that bizarre rivalry thing they imagined) or to remaining 1st gen members (Takamina, Tomochin, Kojiharu, Miichan and even Mariko).

Regardless, this is gonna be hella interesting.

Also, with 64 spots, how freaking long is the announcement ceremony going to be?!

[Amplifier]

I predict the Maeda votes will either go to Yuki (trying to prevent a Yuko win through that bizarre rivalry thing they imagined) or to remaining 1st gen members (Takamina, Tomochin, Kojiharu, Miichan and even Mariko).

Bizzare indeed.

Also, with 64 spots, how freaking long is the announcement ceremony going to be?!

However long it is, I'm just hoping for it to be streamed.

[YKT]

Flash mag and various pundits -  Kami 7 predictions

      犬飼華氏   岡田隆志氏   井上朝夫氏   本誌（FLASH）予想
1   高橋みなみ   渡辺麻友   大島優子   大島優子
2   大島優子   大島優子   柏木由紀   柏木由紀
3   柏木由紀   柏木由紀   渡辺麻友   渡辺麻友
4   松井玲奈   松井玲奈   篠田麻里子   篠田麻里子
5   篠田麻里子   高橋みなみ   松井玲奈   小嶋陽菜
6   渡辺麻友   指原莉乃   小嶋陽菜   松井玲奈
7   松井珠理奈   島崎遥香   高橋みなみ   高橋みなみ

[SomethingWild]

I just realized I have no idea who to vote for 

- Rena: Obvious choice, but doesn't really "need" my support to get a good spot
- Yuki: She'll do fine as well, but since there's a slim chance she might get #1 it may be extra fun to vote for her
- Kasai: Out of my favs, she probably needs the vote te hardest... on the other hand, a high under girls spot may be more beneficial than the last senbatsu spot...
- Yui: let the rise begin!
- Underdogs are fun to vote for as well, because each vote is that much more important to them. I mean, for Yuki there's probably little difference between 28000 or 30000 votes, whereas for Shihorin the difference between 1000 and 1200 votes may be crucial.

CHOICES. Have you peepz decided yet?


Let's see, 64 spots available...
・SKE48: Rena, Jurina, Masana, Akarin, Shawako + hoping for Kumi, Anna and Kanon probably have a shot too.. maybe even more = ~8
・NMB48: Sayaka, Milky + maybe Jo? Nana? Ayame? Others?= ~5?
・HKT48: Kodama Haruka for sure and possibly Sugamoto Yuko and Natsumi Matsuoka = ~3

Really rough estimate, but that means 25% of the spots will be filled by 00048, leaving around 48 spots for AKB48...
Actually, that may a bit much, I doubt girls like Sugamoto Yuko and Natsumi Matsuoka can make it. I think the HKT crowd may do what the NMB crowd did last year: focus on one girl to ensure her participation. I'm guessing between 18% & 24% to be taken up by girls from the other groups.

That means around 35~40 girls from AKB48 won't make it in. Must be pretty painful for the non-KKS among them if they don't make it 

[tenkei]

We talked about the election on a podcast for Selective Hearing the other day, so I was gonna wait to talk about but apparently the file got f'd and can't be used so w/e


anyway.

Some of my early predictions:
-#1 goes to someone within the top 5. While not guaranteed, I do see Yuko as the best bet.
-Sashihara cracks top 5.
-Yokoyama cracks top 10.
-Mayu in top 3.
-A lot of movement for Team 4 girls, especially Suzuran, The Lemon, and Paruru.
-Lots of shake ups through the middle.
-Hopefully a nice rise for Maeda Ami :3

How I see the top 10 if it were to happen tomorrow:
01. Oshima Yuko
02. Watanabe Mayu
03. Kashiwagi Yuki
04. Shinoda Mariko
05. Sashihara Rino
06. Itano Tomomi
07. Matsui Rena
08. Yokoyama Yui
09. Kojima Haruna
10. Takahashi Minami

Though 6-10 could easily be shuffled around. Also Kashiwagi and Mariko are interchangeable--one of them is getting 3rd, the other 4th.

[Melchizadek]

Flash mag and various pundits -  Kami 7 predictions

      犬飼華氏   岡田隆志氏   井上朝夫氏   本誌（FLASH）予想
1   高橋みなみ   渡辺麻友   大島優子   大島優子
2   大島優子   大島優子   柏木由紀   柏木由紀
3   柏木由紀   柏木由紀   渡辺麻友   渡辺麻友
4   松井玲奈   松井玲奈   篠田麻里子   篠田麻里子
5   篠田麻里子   高橋みなみ   松井玲奈   小嶋陽菜
6   渡辺麻友   指原莉乃   小嶋陽菜   松井玲奈
7   松井珠理奈   島崎遥香   高橋みなみ   高橋みなみ

I like the one that predicts Mayuyu as 1st and Paruru as 7th.
Last year, I voted for Kasai Tomomi because of the PB promise; but we see how that worked out.   

This year I'm deciding between my group Oshimen:

Itano Tomomi - After the results last year, I felt guilty for not voting for my KamiOshi, even though I know my one vote wouldn't have made a difference. Maybe her fans will vote more this year, and she can make a comeback.
Yamamoto Sayaka - Her popularity is on the rise, and I would love to see her in the top group.
Ishida Anna - Her being dropped from SKE Senbatsu is probably a large factor in my relative disinterest in their latest singles. If she gets enough votes to prove she's one of the more popular members, maybe she'll be reinstated.

[Amplifier]

Maybe the legion of Atsumina shippers will boost Mini into #1?

Going to either vote straight Yui, or shuffle some votes to Ami as well. Not sure if I'll vote for Mayu, because she almost surely has a Top 3 position secured.

no oshihen

[SomethingWild]

I don't believe the idea that the Maeda votes will go to 1st gen members. Some of them, yes, but I don't think they'll automatically favor a 1st gen member.


Btw:

March 2012:



April 2012:



Mayu for center. 

[Kid_Alpha]

The thought crossed my mind this morning but I think Yukirin might make a good center. I don't know, it just clicked in my brain so maybe it was just my tired brain thinking of random stuff but it made sense to me. /shrug

[lolym]

I'm a very vocal Team B and Yuki oshi so my judgement when it comes to them isn't reliable  but when I look at the most obvious choices for center I can't help but thinking Mayu or Yuki would be the best choices. I don't know if Mayu is versatile enough but Yuki definitely is. Plus, I think it would be good if someone from another Team became the new center.

[winner]

My predicting sucks. So I'm not even going to try.

But seeing the past few years, senbatsu has had a pretty big impact on the group.
1st Confirmed Acchan as the cover girl of AKB.
2nd Gave Yuko her chance, Hebi Rote came, and AKB dominated.
3rd Gave Yuki her push. She started sharing the heavy workload with the other top girls, which must've helped a little.

So it's not just a popularity contest. It'll be interesting finding out how the results this year affect the group.

[almond]

My predicting sucks. So I'm not even going to try.

But seeing the past few years, senbatsu has had a pretty big impact on the group.
1st Confirmed Acchan as the cover girl of AKB.
2nd Gave Yuko her chance, Hebi Rote came, and AKB dominated.
3rd Gave Yuki her push. She started sharing the heavy workload with the other top girls, which must've helped a little.

So it's not just a popularity contest. It'll be interesting finding out how the results this year affect the group.

Another thing to look for is who comes out on top between Takamina and Kojiharu. It seems to effect who is center of no3b.

Before the 1st election - Kojiharu center
From 1st election - before 3rd election - Takamina center
After 3rd election - Kojiharu center

(I know Kuchibiru Furezu came out after the 3rd election, but given recording times and such, it was probably decided on before)

[SomethingWild]

Takamina and Kojiharu

Insanely hard to predict this time...

The results of the 3rd election were really close:
- Kojima Haruna (52,920 votes)
- Takahashi Minami (52,790 votes)

and these girls are both likely candidates to receive some of "Acchan votes," making this really unpredictable. I'm leaning towards KojiHaru since she's been at the top of her game all year long. On the other hand, Takamina always receives a lot of support from various corners, so who knows... It'll be interesting for sure.

[Deaglezero]

Yeah after all this is Japan we're talking about...anything weird can happen.

I find it unlikely though that mayu will become centre....because not all Japanese like otakus (ie some hate otakus A LOT).

But drawing the focus away from the election itself, after the centre person is decided the songs produced will change as well. Many people see team B as the group with sugary cute songs, which unfortunately will make AKB the same as every other idol group out there, so a team B centre might not be the way to go...we'll stop hearing cool songs like RIVER and Beginner. In fact, for me, AKB's songs right now aren't exactly as flash as they were 1.5 years ago, they're just using the momentum from previous songs to carry them to the #1 position on charts. A team A or even team K centre would hail a move back to their old style of songs, which could actually be a good thing.

[Amplifier]

But drawing the focus away from the election itself, after the centre person is decided the songs produced will change as well. Many people see team B as the group with sugary cute songs, which unfortunately will make AKB the same as every other idol group out there, so a team B centre might not be the way to go...we'll stop hearing cool songs like RIVER and Beginner.

I wouldn't necessarily expect any change in the style of songs. Team B gets shoe-horned into the cutesy songs for single b-sides, which is mildly annoying, but their stages have a bit more variety. But anyway, the center isn't really important for the single itself, and I don't think they'll go alter the forthcoming singles (which are almost certainly in progress already). We'll still get some quicky & badass song in August, a boss song in October, and the oddball Janken-song in December, etc etc. Rinse, Wash, Repeat!

I'd pay good money for Janken to be replaced by something else, though

[Tanchan]

My predicting sucks. So I'm not even going to try.

But seeing the past few years, senbatsu has had a pretty big impact on the group.
1st Confirmed Acchan as the cover girl of AKB.
2nd Gave Yuko her chance, Hebi Rote came, and AKB dominated.
3rd Gave Yuki her push. She started sharing the heavy workload with the other top girls, which must've helped a little.

So it's not just a popularity contest. It'll be interesting finding out how the results this year affect the group.

Another thing to look for is who comes out on top between Takamina and Kojiharu. It seems to effect who is center of no3b.

Before the 1st election - Kojiharu center
From 1st election - before 3rd election - Takamina center
After 3rd election - Kojiharu center

(I know Kuchibiru Furezu came out after the 3rd election, but given recording times and such, it was probably decided on before)

Takamina is technically still center of No3b even after the election . Sure Kojiharu started the song and has more solos in Pedicure Day (I think it's because this type of cute songs fit her more as compared to Takamina) but in the cover as well as media appearances when they promote the single and magazine photoshoots,  Takamina is still center. So I don't think the center position in NO3b has that much to do with election results. It might affect the formation for one single right after the election, but for singles after that and in general, I don't think the center will be decided based on that unless they plan to release only 1 single per year.

[lolym]

Following up on what Amplifier was saying...

Team B is a bit misunderstood by those who don't really follow their stage songs. Yes, they are in charge of the 'classic idol' and 'cute' concept but they CAN pull off fierce, sexy and powerful songs. I mean, some of their best stage songs aren't cute AT ALL.