[2013.06.08] AKB48 5th Senbatsu Election & Swimwear Surprise 2013 [Mook]

[YKT]

For final results, see this post: http://forum.jphip.com/index.php?topic=35282.msg1192473#msg1192473

AKB48 32nd Single Senbatsu Election
※Or: AKB48 5th Senbatsu Election

Date/time/venue of event: 2013.06.08, 5.30 pm, at Nissan Stadium

Grand AKB Festival @ Nissan Stadium

    ◆Eligible members◆
    - AKB, SKE, NMB, HKT members up to 3/31;
    - Team Kaigai members (Takajo, Nakagawa, Miyazawa, Suzuki M)
    - Every 48 group former member who has been in her group for 4 years or longer.
    Every eligible member need to apply to participate, from 31/3 to 7/4.


    ◆Number of open spots◆
    ・32nd single senbatsu members：16名（1位～16位）
    ・Undergirls：16名（17位～32位）
    ・Next girls：16名（33位～48位）
    ・Future girls：16名（49位～64位）

    ◆How to vote◆
    ①AKB48 Fanclub「二本柱の会」(1 vote)
    ②AKB48 Mobile registration (1 vote)
    ③AKB48 Official Smartphone application (1 vote)
    ④AKB48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND registration (1 vote)
    ⑤AKB OFFICIAL NET (1 vote)
    ⑥SKE48 Mobile registration (1 vote)
    ⑦SKE48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND registration (1 vote)
    ⑧NMB48 Mobile registration (1 vote)
    ⑨NMB48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND registration (1 vote)
    ⑩HKT48 Mobile registration (1 vote)
    ⑪HKT48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND registration (1 vote)
    ⑫AKB48 31st single「TBA」Regular／Limited／Theater editions (1 vote per serial number)

    ◆Voting period◆
    2013年5月21日（火）10:00　～　2013年6月7日（金）15:00

    http://ameblo.jp/akihabara48/entry-11498787416.html

Thanks to Rinatin for the above.

[SomethingWild]

Let's predict and analyse!

Green = go up in ranking.
Orange = More or less the same ranking / hard to predict.
Red = go down in ranking.

Battle for #1
- Yuko: been a bit invisible this year. Not yet didn't do anything. She did some random horror movie and the voice for Brave, but I can’t recall any recent epic Yuko moments.
- Mayu: solid solo single, plenty of magazine shoots and another PB incoming. However, a few of us mentioned she looks pretty tired. The pressure definitely weighing heavily on her shoulders and she's not as fresh anymore as she used to be.
- Yuki: solo debut with sales above expectation. Still keeping her face out there. She’s maintaining her position a lot better than I would have thought, so who knows what she can achieve this time.

Sashihara: going to be really interesting. Scandal, transfer, but she handled it like only she can. Not sure if she’ll be able to get top five again, but we’ll see her in the top ten for sure. Quoting: <maliciel> maybe yuko can retire so sasshi can claim her rightful place at the top.
Mariko VS Takamina VS Kojima: solid first gen. They’re all still active doing what they do and they’re all still popular. Top ten for sure, but specific rankings will be impossible to predict.
Itano: gone.

Jurina VS Rena: Jurina’s had a tough year with plenty of absences, but she still gets center positions in AKB and SKE. Rena is as popular as ever, so once again, hard to predict. I would have sworn Rena would have beaten Jurina last time, but her critical G+ messages may have lost her some fans in the last minute. I hope she’ll take it this year.

Sae: IF they include her as member... maybe she can remain top 16.
Rie: has been getting pushed endlessly, but she just doesn’t have it. I doubt many are excited about her transfer to SKE48. I can’t see her rising. Maybe top 16. Maybe.
Kasai: gone.
Minegishi: how bad is that scandal going to affect her? I don’t even mind the scandal so much, but the way she handled it was ridiculous. In the end she acted on selfish motives (1. break the rules in the first place 2. say you love the group, but act without consulting the management to hurt the image of the group to save your own ass). Miichan’s been great, but at this moment in time she doesn’t deserve top 16.

Yui: unlike Rie, Yui’s transfer seems like a match made in heaven. I can see her cracking top ten this year. Yui’s very likable and I think more and more people will get hooked. Especially with Geinin season two right around the corner.
Umeda: she definitely made the most of her senbatsu spot, but lately she’s been out of the spotlight a bit. I wonder that the ken Koba action on XX helped her regain some more momentum. Top 16 should still be within her reach, but it’ll be close.
Akicha: IF they include her, maybe she gained the support of the Indonesian fans, but I doubt she'll climb back into senbatsu.

Sayanee VS Milky: If the PB sales are any indication Milky is edging ahead. Not to mention the extra exposure she’s getting by being a proper AKB member now. With all the AKB girls graduating they both might be able to enter senbatsu this time.

Sayaka VS Amina VS Mocchi: with the massive increase of new gen pimpage I doubt they’ll be able to rise. Solid undergirls.

Paruru: the media is very powerful and there is no doubt she will rise. The question is by how much. I’m still very conflicted. At times I think she’s super cute and funny, but other times she’s boring and annoying. I can see why Aki-P uses the Cinderella tactic, but she’s not a princess just yet. One of the issues I have with Paru (and all the Team 4 girls) is that their clique is too strong. They don’t really interact outside of their box that much. edit: after adding the color coding I'm convinced Paru will make top #12.

Yuka: gone.

SKE48
Akane: might get protest votes because Rie took her spot. Don’t mess with the captain!
Hata: gone.
Masana: never really got why she always ranks this high, so we’ll see.
Kumi: gone.
Akarin: still going strong. Variety talent which will surely increase her ranking.
Airi: still massively underrated, but she doesn’t get the exposure to improve her position.
Yuria: with Kuumin gone Yuria’s been pushed more towards the front. I think she’s pretty damn popular, so I think she’ll go up.
Ogiso: gone.


New faces!

AKB48
AnRiRe: have been pushed to death, but didn’t rank last year at all. Will this year be any different? I say yes. At least Kawaei should rank, or they’ve wasted massive resources. I'm not a big fan of any of the Team 4 girls, but I hope they step up their game for AKB48's sake.
Iwata Karen: 0048 power and charity icon.
Kotani Riho?
Okada Nana? I believe.

SKE48
Suga Nanako: builds robots! Geek wota rejoice! Lol
Furuhata Nao: handshake queen. She’ll rank for sure.

NMB48
Fuuko: still up and coming. G the TV magazine cover, etc. She failed to make an impression on Pon!, but when you're up against girls like Ogasawara then it's that much harder to stand out.
Yoshida Akari?

HKT48
Now this is where it’s going to be interesting. First of all, last year we only had five NMB girls and only one HKT girl (Sakura). This year there will be plenty of open spots due to graduations so how will they be filled? For the sake of argument, I think we can expect at least 3~5 HKT48 member in the ranking. Excluding Sasshi and Lovetan, there are plenty of candidates:
Sakura: no doubt about that.
Haruppi: didn’t quit make it as the ace, but still popular and gaining new fans.
Meru: pushed as the group’s center, but can she live up the to the expectations?
Mio: the true KKS ace!
And I wouldn’t forget about Murashige and Anai as outsiders.


What do you think? Let's try to have one thread with actual discussion! 

[YKT]

^wow, amazing effort! 

I'm going to start with the 1 person I dislike the most.  Paruru.  I think she will definitively break into Kami 7 and possibly go way up to 4th place.  Her rise will be way more stunning than Sasshi.  Management and Burning Pro have been promoting her to the hilt (think popcorn boxes). 

Last year 4th place in the rankings went to Sasshi.  I think she will fall this year but not by much - she will likely remain in the top 10.

I predict that Rena will rank higher than Jurina.  Her fans will not want a repeat of last year.

There's no way Mayuyu can be first if Yuko participates in this election.  Yuko has overwhelming popularity with the wota and casual fans.

[maliciel]

This year is Paruru's year.

[SomethingWild]

I'm going to start with the 1 person I dislike the most.  Paruru.  I think she will definitively break into Kami 7 and possibly go way up to 4th place.  Her rise will be way more stunning than Sasshi.  Management and Burning Pro have been promoting her to the hilt (think popcorn boxes).

Paruru's rise is very different type. If we compare:

Sasshi: #27 --> #19 --> #9 --> #4
Paruru: #28 --> unranked (!) --> #23

Whereas Sasshi increasingly gained support, Paruru's rise has been much more haphazard. Like you said, it's definitely more management driven. Sasshi received a push too, but that can only take you so far. If you don't use your push then you'll fade away into obscurity soon enough; <list various example members here>. Looking at the list I think it's safe to say Paruru will at least make top #12. I can't see her beating all the big first gen names and W Matsui.

Last year 4th place in the rankings went to Sasshi.  I think she will fall this year but not by much - she will likely remain in the top 10.

I'm beginning to wonder if she'll drop at all. In fact, I was looking at the list and it's hard to come up with girls who are more awesome than her. Yes, she had a tricky period with the scandal and transfer, but she handled it super well. She's still in all AKB48's shows, she's the face of everything HKT48 does on TV, she's still on Iitomo every week... I can't think of a reason why she wouldn't make top #5.

[YKT]

^true.  Think she will not drop much, like you said "we’ll see her in the top ten for sure.''

Speaking of the top ten, I predict Milky will make the top ten.  Milky's growing popularity with wotas (as evidenced by recent single's handshake slots sold) is amazing.   But Paruru trumps her in terms of popularity with casual fans in general.

[Seigus]

I'm going to start with the 1 person I dislike the most.  Paruru.  I think she will definitively break into Kami 7 and possibly go way up to 4th place. 

I'm going to disagree with this. I don't see Paru breaking into Kami 7 and in fact, not even Top 10. Jurina has enjoyed a lot of push by the management way before Paru, yet she has never once managed to reach Kami 7 status. Paru would have to beat WMatsui before she could breathe the same air as the godly seven and I don't think her popularity is anywhere near either of them.

Speaking of WMatsui, I was happy that Jurina beat Rena last year. However, this year, I'm swinging towards Rena and I get the feeling that she will turn the tables around as a lot of people seem to be getting tired of Jurina being everywhere.

The Top 3 will remain the same. As much as I want Mayuyu to claim top spot, her popularity still can't rival Yuko's. As for Yukirin, her "scandal" and that kiss with a guy in the original Gingham Check PV might have cost her a small number of wota but majority of her fans are still supporting her (as seen in her 2nd solo live concert) and her growth as an all-rounded artiste rather than just an idol. Plus, I'm sure she has gained new fans with her successful solo debut.

Sasshihara will drop a few ranks but remain in Top 10.

Mariko-Takamina-Haruna will remain in this order. As seen in Request Hour 2013, Mariko's wota are still going strong and they managed to vote Ue Kara Mariko to No.3 spot. Takamina will enjoy a rise in votes due to her solo debut and new role as General Manager which have given her lots of publicity but I can't see her being higher than Queen Mariko who is highly active in various social media platforms.

My Top 16 prediction (for now):
1. Oshima Yuko
2. Watanabe Mayu
3. Kashiwagi Yuki
4. Shinoda Mariko
5. Takahashi Minami
6. Sashihara Rino
7. Kojima Haruna
8. Matsui Rena
9. Matsui Jurina
10. Yokoyama Yui
11. Watanabe Miyuki
12. Kitahara Rie
13. Yamamoto Sayaka
14. Shimazaki Haruka
15. Umeda Ayaka
16. Akimoto Sayaka

IF Miyazawa Sae is included in the election, she'd be No.10 and the members starting from Yui will be pushed down one spot.

[RenX]

Random thoughts

• Sae is still considered an AKB48 member so surely she will participate and I'm sure she's gonna do well this year, probably would come at #10. Fans have proved their support for her at RH and I'm sure they're gonna show more support this time. Same thing for the other Twin Tower. I really want her to rank within Top #16 but I think it is kinda unlikely so I guess her highest rank this year would be #17.
• I agree with SomethingWild, Yuko's been kinda under the radar in last few months which could possibly make her votes decrease but I'm still sure she'll have more than 100k votes, maybe just like last year, the only member to do so. But I don't think fans would mind the fact that she's been under the radar or something like that. She really has huge popularity among fans and that's something that ensures her the #1 spot.
• I know it is very unlikely but I want to see Mayu take the #1 spot so bad. The future ace, she really deserves it and despite Yuko's my oshi, I really don't mind if Mayu overtake her.
• With W Tomomi most likely gone, I do believe that W Matsui will sky-rocket hard this year. I would expect that Rena or Jurina would come at 8th or 9th repectively this time or vice versa and perhaps there is a slight chance one of them will rank higher than Rino who I think would be #7 this year.
• Haven't got much to say about Sayaka & Milky. I just am sure they will rank within the Top #16.
• For Mariko, Takamina & Kojiharu, I'm sure they're gonna stay at around #4-6.
• I don't know about Miichan. Her scandal affected her badly. I'm guessing the highest rank she would get this year would be between #17 and #20 but it is likely that she'd rank lower than 20.
• About the girl who's been getting push since the Eternal Pressure, I do believe she will make it into Senbatsu, beating names such as Kitarie, Umechan, Sayaka, Milky & Yuihan. I guess she would come at #11 or #12 this year.

I think the most interesting part about this year's Sousenkyo is the members who will get #11 - 16 since I'm quite sure the top 10 will remain unchanged with the same members. Let's see how well Kitarie, Yuihan & Umechan hold their rank with the inclusion of Paruru, Sayaka, Milky and probably Akimoto into the Senbatsu.

[SomethingWild]

The one thing we learned from last years is that nothing stays the same 
There will always be at least one or two massive surprises, so with that in mind let me post my early top 16 prediction.

16. Kizaki Yuria
15. Yamamoto Sayaka
14. Umeda Ayaka
13. Miyazawa Sae
12. Shimazaki Haruka
11. Watanabe Miyuki
10. Yokoyama Yui
09. Matsui Jurina
08. Kojima Haruna
07. Matsui Rena
06. Shinoda Mariko
05. Takahashi Minami
04. Sashihara Rino
03. Watanabe Mayu
02. Oshima Yuko
01. Kashiwagi Yuki

There. Slightly controversial, but I want bragging rights in case I'm right 

[Seigus]

02. Oshima Yuko
01. Kashiwagi Yuki

If this happens, I don't think anything else will surprise me anymore

[sakura_drop_]

02. Oshima Yuko
01. Kashiwagi Yuki

If this happens, I don't think anything else will surprise me anymore

I second this 

I want Rena-sama to be in Top 5 even though it will likely won't happen...

Anyway, I hope Yuko-sama stays No.1 but with Mayu or Yuki getting close by so she would feel the rivalry (the one she had with Acchan won't happen but at least smth similar would be okay...)

[winner]

^^^Hahaha, even I wouldn't think something that crazy~
I'd totally like to see it happen. But the Oshiri Sisters are pretty hard to overtake.
I wouldn't mind Yukirin dominating in the early results like last time though. Makes for some fun drama.

My list would look a lot like seigus, with Sae wedged into 10.
But I'd have Rie dropping to UG. And Paruru jumping above Yui's spot with the help of her constant exposure.
Top 3 places are pretty damn solid. Unless (touch-wood) Friday does a Mayuyu x Alpaca love scandal article.

I think this year 2 points will be important.
One is management allowing higher spots overall for popular early members (like Takamina and KojiHaru) who've got multi-entertainment skills. To acknowledge their hard work and also keep them from graduating.
Second is giving an advantage to members that can help build a positive image for AKB. The group has been doing great in the past few years with fun and healthy music. But these few months they've taken a few painful punches, losing center nova, then one of their best singers, and then the constant scandal attacks.

So after some thought. Considering she looks cute, is great at talking, young but composed, has a good stage presence, and likes sharing smiles...
I give my vote to Furuhata Nao for President~~

She's still so new. And might not even make Undergirls. But I hope she can get a nice spot.

[maliciel]

I'm going to disagree with this. I don't see Paru breaking into Kami 7 and in fact, not even Top 10. Jurina has enjoyed a lot of push by the management way before Paru, yet she has never once managed to reach Kami 7 status. Paru would have to beat WMatsui before she could breathe the same air as the godly seven and I don't think her popularity is anywhere near either of them.

Do you honestly think so? At this point and how much Paruru gets exposure on her own, I think it's safe to say she's one of the most recognizable AKB48 members ever.

That said though, I wonder if there are any girls that will step out of the race. Personally I think the competition would be a lot fiercer if Yuko took a pass for this year, and you could probably argue that the resulting publicity far outweighs that of her being top (again). I'd love to see more team 4 members make it, but they've been on the down low and I'm afraid they've been fairly overshadowed by everyone else. At this point they're one amongst many.

But I'm rooting for my girl Iwatate

[edsonmassao]

because of the open positions of the graduated members, we will see new names in this Senbatsu!

and how about Kimoto Kanon?  Sometimes she looks like Paruru: have media exposure due to management efforts, but lacks something to have her own bright...

and we can't forget of our Mannnnatsu! 

[YKT]

Since we're doing top 16s for bragging rights, here's mine

IF Oshima Yuko participates

1. Oshima Yuko
2. Watanabe Mayu
3. Kashiwagi Yuki
4. Takahashi Minami
5. Shimazaki Haruka
6. Shinoda Mariko
7. Sashihara Rino
8. Matsui Rena
9. Matsui Jurina
10. Watanabe Miyuki
11. Kojima Haruna
12. Kitahara Rie
13. Yamamoto Sayaka
14. Yokoyama Yui
15. Miyazawa Sae
16. Umeda Ayaka

IF Oshima Yuko does not, everyone goes up a spot (eg: Shimazaki Haruka will be 4th) and the 16th place...wait for it... Kawaei Rina 

[RenX]

Personally I think the competition would be a lot fiercer if Yuko took a pass for this year, and you could probably argue that the resulting publicity far outweighs that of her being top (again)

Most wota and casual fans then turn their attention to MaYuki, which in a short time could be an interesting rivalry since AtsuYuu.
There are discussions though whether Yuko will participate or not, combined with graduations that would likely happen at two concerts in April and June. Honestly, I can't think of any reasons why Yuko will not participate this year. Graduating is most likely the reason for it but why would Aki-P made her Captain and renamed the Team K if she's graduating so fast? It just isn't right.

I guess we'll see, AKB is full of surprises, isn't it?

By the way, here's my top 16 :

01. Oshima Yuko
02. Watanabe Mayu
03. Kashiwagi Yuki
04. Shinoda Mariko
05. Takahashi Minami
06. Kojima Haruna
07. Sashihara Rino
08 / 09. W Matsui
10. Miyazawa Sae
11. Shimazaki Haruka
12. Yokoyama Yui
13. Yamamoto Sayaka
14. Umeda Ayaka
15. Watanabe Miyuki
16. Kitahara Rie

That is, if Yuko participates, if not then maybe Akimoto, Miichan, Amina or Akicha will make it into Senbatsu.

___________________
EDIT : Ranking change.

[Seigus]

Do you honestly think so? At this point and how much Paruru gets exposure on her own, I think it's safe to say she's one of the most recognizable AKB48 members ever.

Yes, I do. Paru's got a lot of exposure lately but that doesn't necessarily translate into popularity. It's still too early for her to beat WMatsui, in my opinion at least. She doesn't seem to be making full use of her push to worm her way into fans' hearts like what Sasshi did so yes, she will shoot up in ranking this year but not to the point of Top 10.

[sakura_drop_]

well, mine is not that very different from others' but still


1. Oshima Yuko-sama
2. Kashiwagi Yuki
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Shinoda Mariko
5. Takahashi Minami
6. Sashihara Rino
7. Matsui Rena
8. Matsui Jurina
9. Kojima Haruna
10. Miyazawa Sae
11. Yokoyama Yui
12. Watanabe Miyuki
13. Yamamoto Sayaka
14. Shimazaki Haruka
15. Umeda Ayaka
16. Akimoto Sayaka

If Yuko-sama is not participating, then Miichan might make it in..

[t-motion]

My prediction:


using more than 15 predictions and my prediction
explain later...

[Ruka Kikuchi]

I don't really know what's gonna happen, but, with all the new faces, a LOT of old members are gonna be in the Undergirls.
I can say for the senbatsu though, there IS the possibility Mayu could be center. Her popularity's kinda started sky-rocketing. Plus, she said herself she wanted to be center and WAS the center in "So Long!"

Here's what I think:
1. Watanabe Mayu
2. Oshima Yuko
3. Kashiwagi Yuki
4. Shinoda Mariko
5. Takahashi Minami
6. Sashihara Rino
7. Kojima Haruna
8. Matsui Jurina
9. Matsui Rena
10. Miyazawa Sae(if counted)
11. Shimazaki Haruka
12. Watanabe Miyuki
13. Yokoyama Yui
14. Yamamoto Sayaka
15. Umeda Ayaka
16. Akimoto Sayaka

If Sae's not in, everyone after her will move one spot. That and maybe Miyawaki Sakura will take 12th or 13th place.

..Just please please PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSEEEEE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ let my Sayaka-chan get in the senbatsu this year!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't stand it!!!!!!!!!!

...And yet, somehow, ever since I found her, I've noticed a jump in her life and her luck increase... (In my mind: What if I'm her lucky charm?)