Should AKB48 be cautious of overkill?

[SomethingWild]

What I mean by that; is AKB48 getting so much exposure that people might get sick of them?

It kinda happened to Robbie William here. Single after single... at one point people just had enough.

Could this happen to AKB48 with their numerous television appearances/shows, zillions of merchandise and cd/dvd releases? Can they afford a break like Yui or is the competition too fierce to step out of the spotlight occasionally?

[reina's eyes]

Keeping quality and originality up are key. Freshness is helped by new ideas and new faces (though as older members get cycled out fans can feel betrayed).

A decrease in activity might not go over well. I know the downscaling in hp (loss of haromoni, dumping of all the elders, etc) has had a detrimental effect for me.

The erepyon thread has people noticing she was less visible for a while. And I'll miss ske rina's voice as she scales back her participation to study. That there's so much else going on makes absences less of a loss if not unnoticeable.

I think you're right to touch on what a fine balance it is between overkill and contraction. When things are going strongly, it's tempting I'm sure to overreach even for someone as calculating as akip. But if there's an opportunity to promote the group or a member, a shot at the top of oricon, a chance for a new series or special, a dorama, a movie (!!!), it won't go missed.

[maliciel]

It kinda happened to Robbie William here. Single after single... at one point people just had enough.

Elaborate, what do you mean by 'had enough'?

Release-wise (music) I don't think there's a need to worry. Akimoto Yasushi has had enough time to know the pitfalls of cranking out 5 Baby! Baby! Baby! singles in a row. He knows how to change it up, and still maintain a semblance of similarity, so people say "Hey, this isn't typical AKB48, but it is". At some point it ceases to be an issue and just the name sells. Yasushi also has a great weapon in the large talent pool he has. He could literally change out the whole group and still call it AKB48. And while he wouldn't, that represents how much diversity he has at his disposal. While I think AKB48 should stop cranking out so many singles in a short span of time, my concern is more of the creativity running out (and then falling into the trap of releasing crappy singles) than people not buying them. I mean seriously, B'z has what, 33 #1 singles or something? You can't get that if the population is too quick to tire of stuff, even if you're B'z.

'Zillions of merchandise/DVD releases'. Does AKB release a lot of DVDs? Serious question. I ask because it seems like most of them are the norm even for other cases. For example, Shukan AKB and Majisuka Gakuen are both TV shows, and it's pretty normal for DVDs of those to be sold. Concert DVDs are par for the course as well, and I think most would appreciate being able to see stuff they weren't able to see personally. As for merchandise, I'm thinking it doesn't affect the general population at all. At some point most of it is idol otaku territory and we all know how much they get sick of stuff. And the variety thing applies as well, there's never too many things to choose from, if you're a casual fan.

Where AKB48 are now, I don't think a break would kill them. Although the extent of the break (just AKB48, or all AKB48 girls) plays a huge role in my answer. If AKB48 just stopped releasing, they'd come back to a 'AKB48 makes a comeback!' as opposed to a 'AKB48, who used to release hits like Sakura no Shiori..' But with the extent of their reach (Variety, Drama, Movie, Music, Lives), it would definitely be possible to scale back on something while still maintaining a presence in the sphere of entertainment.

[hibachifinal]

I still think they aren't THAT popular.
While they might have had a major increase in exposure as of late... i'd say its a non-issue. Like mentioned previously, its a matter of quality in this case.
I'd be more worried if they do something drastic to change the 'formula' (like i dunno, get rid of the theater shows lol).

[sousora]

I still think they aren't THAT popular.

This. They're popular, but certainly not that popular with the general public at large to have any fear of overkill at this point in time, I think.

[Datalanche]

What I mean by that; is AKB48 getting so much exposure that people might get sick of them?

I think that international AKB fandom over-analyzes AKB's rise in sales to equate total overall popularity. Yes, they are rising in popularity, but not to some insane level. The latest singles have sold so well because of a rise in fandom, but a rise in the same fandom that buys a meter-high stack of discs to vote in senbatsu or go through the handshake line a freakish amount of times. Though it will never happen, I would be curious to see how sales would go if AKB48 released a single with only normal music group promotion. No handshake or similar events, no tickets to vote in whatever marketing ploy of the month, any of that wota stuff. Just release a song into the wild and see how it does. Bonus points for an alternate dimension where a person could only buy one copy.

It kinda happened to Robbie William here. Single after single... at one point people just had enough.

At this point, AKB48 has nothing to worry about. They're currently the most popular otaku-marketed group, and the otaku will do as they are told until something else catches their eye, which right now there is no sign of.

Can they afford a break like Yui or is the competition too fierce to step out of the spotlight occasionally?

Yui is a musician, AKB48 is an idol group. Them taking a break is a moderate risk as it allows time for the otaku mind to wander. They are interesting people in that they are fiercely loyal while endlessly fickle. I don't think extended time between a single would hurt since they have TV shows up the ass, but without those, it would be a little risky.

So, overkill to the general population? Nah. Overkill to the wota? I don't know that there is such a thing.

[johanx841]

I guess AKB48-SKE48 should let some unknown members get some media exposure without having the likes of Acchan , Takamina in Akb48 and likes of Rena and Jurina in SKE48 !!

[testament101]

I still think they aren't THAT popular.
While they might have had a major increase in exposure as of late... i'd say its a non-issue. Like mentioned previously, its a matter of quality in this case.
I'd be more worried if they do something drastic to change the 'formula' (like i dunno, get rid of the theater shows lol).

My japanese friend has been explaining to me that while "idol" groups are popular, they're not afforded the "celeb" status that certain singers get (i.e. Any idol groups <Ayumi Hamasaki probably not that fair of an example but you get the picture).  Other than the fact that they have 48 girls, there's really not that much difference as a whole from H!P, idols are idols.  So yes, people are going to get tired of the name at some point.  The biggest advantage for them is that they're actually situated in the center of where they're most popular.  Aki P thought this out so I think they'll be okay.

[winner]

I guess looking at H!P's history could be a good guide.
As an idol group, AKB have just started to become successful in the mainstream during the past half year. I think their popularity can still grow, and the exposure right now is necessary for this growth.
Same for the group's style and hierarchy. For example, their mini-groups are starting to be pushed too.
I might even say they don't have enough exposure! (hey, they don't even have a sure-to-come corny movie with all members yet~)

On the other hand, I'm kinda worried for individual members.
Unlike Morning Musume (where members have successfully gone on to do different things in the entertainment business), the popularity AKB48 have gained has mainly only been for the team in the past few years. Not for the members themselves.
When the inevitable graduations come, I can only see very few members able to use their AKB popularity to help them do successfully outside of AKB.

So I'm all for more 'individual' exposure and giving people a better impression of themselves.

[gainax_jin]

well i think it depends on how they will deliver each single that they will release...because just like what all of u is saying people might get sick on them someday....uniqueness is still the best way for them to survived in japans music industry...still akb48 still rulz japan's land today so nothing to worry about the overkill thing ...akb48 is a good group,has good manager,and most of all they have good loyal fans like us to keep supporting them whether they are on top or they are on the bottom..just keep supporting them..I LUV U AKB48!