[2013.06.08] AKB48 5th Senbatsu Election & Swimwear Surprise 2013 [Mook]

[SomethingWild]

And KKS Miichan can participate since she has been in AKB for more than 4 years.

In all past election KKS were included, so I assume "member" includes all KKS.


Thoughts:
- What an obvious scheme. It's pretty much certain that Yuko won't participate (and maybe more 1st gen/top members) leaving the road wide open for Paruru-tachi to enter senbatsu.
- This system takes away a lot of the excitement and heritage associated with the election.
- I'm quite sure Acchan won't participate, because she's trying to make a name for herself outside of AKB48. Going back would probably hurt both her and AKB48's new image. However, if she participates I'll lmao.
- I can see Erena participating, but looking at her latest CD sales she might not do too well. Even so, it could mean some good promotion for her.
- Any girl who doesn't register isn't worthy of being an idol (exceptions include Yuko/1st gen/top members because they may want to give the new girls a chance and have a break from it all). 
- Sashihara just won the election. 

[Jul3]

    ◆How to vote◆
    ①AKB48 Fanclub「二本柱の会」(1 vote)
    ②AKB48 Mobile registration (1 vote)
    ③AKB48 Official Smartphone application (1 vote)
    ④AKB48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND registration (1 vote)
    ⑤AKB OFFICIAL NET (1 vote)
    ⑥SKE48 Mobile registration (1 vote)
    ⑦SKE48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND registration (1 vote)
    ⑧NMB48 Mobile registration (1 vote)
    ⑨NMB48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND registration (1 vote)
    ⑩HKT48 Mobile registration (1 vote)
    ⑪HKT48 LIVE!! ON DEMAND registration (1 vote)
    ⑫AKB48 31st single「TBA」Regular／Limited／Theater editions (1 vote per serial number)

I've highlighted in bold the three new methods of voting which were not available last year.

NMB and HKT did not have DMM LOD services back then so we can expect a boost in voting for NMB/HKT members.

However, I believe the biggest difference is the inclusion of voting tickets in the Theatre Edition of the single. Previously it was just in the regular/limited CD+DVD editions. If we look at sales figures for the last sousenkyo single "Manatsu no Sounds Good", it sold 1.6million on Oricon, and 700k on Soundscan, so we can estimate that there approximately 900k copies of the Theatre Edition sold that did not come with voting tickets. Looking at the latest single "So long!" we see the difference between Oricon (1 million)and Soundscan (>300k) is still ~700k. At first I was tempted to say that there would be an extra ~700k votes from Theatre Editions, but perhaps the extra number of Regular/Limited Edition sales for Manatsu were Theatre Edition buyers purchasing the DVD editions to get voting tickets. Whichever way you look at it, this is certainly a big shake-up in how to get a voting ticket. As Theatre Editions (which come free with individual member handshake sales) now play a role, perhaps looking at the latest handshake sales for AKB singles will give a larger indication of where votes will be placed - if we take the simple approximation that a handshake buyer will also vote for that member in the election (which I doubt holds true, as people are more likely just to vote for their oshimen, but handshake a wider number of girls).

[Datalanche]

My reaction to this is basically "I think it's lame."

1. Do we really need to bring grads back? To me, this is the ultimate sign that an idol group is in trouble, and I've don't really see AKB48 as in trouble.
2. I agree that this takes away excitement. If Yuko and others bow out then the results become less authentic and in turn less exciting. Even if something crazy happened, like Sasshi won, sure it would be funny, but knowing that it wouldn't have happened on a level playing field would nuke most of that excitement for me. AKB48 members should be part of the AKB48 single election. Plain and simple.
3. Acchan participating would be equally hilarious and pathetic. It would damage the reputation of both entities involved. Both are doing just fine without each other. I think the chances of this happening are about zero.
4. Looking at the rather small list of eligible graduates, I don't see any of them itching to participate. Maybe Cindy? lol. Most of these members weren't popular while they were in the *48 empire, what would change now that they're gone?
5. Any girl who doesn't register really should just quit. If you're not even willing to try, even if you know it's impossible, what kind of message are you giving to your fans?

Time will tell how this plays out. I was planning to buy several single copies this time around but maybe I won't have to now.

[boykun]

Another day in the fandom! I felt nothing interesting was going on with AKB this year. Too many grads, not enough good stuff. But this has gotten people talking.

Kind of hoping Yuko and other God tier members bow out just to see the mess that happens in the rankings. Really though, there probably won't be that much of a change. I strongly doubt recent grads (Nakaya, Masuda, etc.) will apply. They left for a reason.

Looking forward to the list of candidates.

[hina]

Well god tier senbatsu could definitely do what they want since they're obviously popular, but i wonder if their agencies would let them. I mean the election has always been a media thing right?

If they let them though, then this might be the chance for the underdogs in some agencies to get some.

[Datalanche]

Here's a thought I had later in the day which might be my biggest gripe.

Last year, Mariko said in her speech that the younger generation should aim for the older's positions, strive for them, come at me bro and all that good stuff. Personally, to see the older generation basically sit it out and give them the mantle would not only be odd, it would be downright disappointing. This is how we step to the next generation? Seems pretty forced, and pretty lame.

Like I said, it could be amusing, but the meaning of this event could very well be lost. Just my worry and opinion, I hope it'll all be fine.

[Rust]

The new rules is pretty interesting methink. I agree having Acchan return would be counter-intuitive in many ways, since AKB want to enter their "2nd chapter" & Acchan want to make a name for herself & not as a representative of AKB. My observation is most don't want to see the graduates participate too. The only circumstances where this rule wouldn't seem counter-intuitive is to allow the SDN girls to participate or girls that were popular but graduated before AKB reached its golden year of success (e.g. Oshima Mai, Yuimin...?).

& allow me to try to offer a different perspective lol. From an electioneering perspective, an very interesting circumstances can arise now methink. Ever follow those archaic leadership conventions of Westminster-style political parties? A lot of potential candidates in those will eventually drop out & endorse another candidates. Now I don't foresee this happening, since it can be damaging to one's relationship to someone not endorsed, but it is something that can now realistically happen to the sousenkyou I think! Like for e.g. Yuko drop out & endorse her oshiri sister Mayuyu, Mariko drop out & endorse Jurina,  Tomochin endorse Paruru, Kumin endorse Yuria, heck Takamina drop out & endorse Yuihan or Shimada? They are now all within the realm of possibility lol, altho I don't forsee it happening. Last year's sousenkyou, one notable thing was the success of SKE's vote allocation by their fans, resulting in SKE flooding unders. This year, members now have the power to do the same! What do you folks think of the possibility?

Oh & I don't foresee Mariko graduating. I kind of support her for sticking around too in fact, cause I want to see her challenge the norm of member only allow to stick around til early/mid-twenties in an idol group.

[jafeijai]

Noteworthy participation updates:
- Yonezawa Rumi has tweeted she will not be participating
- Ono Erena has tweeted she will not be participating
- After what she said last year, Shinoda Mariko has tweeted she is definitely taking part this year

[THUNDERDUCK]

Yuka Masuda definitely one of the most underutilized, talented members, should participate!

[Rust]

Former AKB/SDN Sato Yukari (佐藤由加理) seems to be expressing interest! From her twitter:

そ、AKB総選挙に立候補できるの(;゜∇゜)？！

Mariko replied even lol:

@yukoriyukori え！ゆこりするの？（笑）立候補するなら…今でしょ！！！

Seeing potential candidates announcing their intention is so reminiscent of an real election lol.

[jafeijai]

Yuka Masuda definitely one of the most underutilized, talented members, should participate!

She's got a lot of stuff lined up for her in the coming months (musical, her own show), so even if she wanted to, she probably wouldn't have the time for this.

Noteworthy participation updates:
- Yonezawa Rumi has tweeted she will not be participating
- Ono Erena has tweeted she will not be participating
- After what she said last year, Shinoda Mariko has tweeted she is definitely taking part this year

- Yamamoto Sayaka has stated on G+ that she will take part

Edit: Watanabe Miyuki has also stated she's in

[winner]

I hope they remember to fill in the official form and not just tweet about participating and forget.

I guess the ball is in Yuko's court. Choosing to participate or not both seem like positive choices for her.
Joining will be for her fans and show her fighting Team K spirit.
Not joining will be a showing of her love for the group, supporting the new-gen to grow (and the Mayu vs Yuki battle may actually happen).

Otherwise, I don't really see much change caused from the new rules.
Most members will probably join.
The grads have all got their own lives, pausing it and going back sounds pretty stupid.
For popular ones like MaiMai, I don't think getting into senbatsu or even getting center will interest her, otherwise she would've stayed.
Only member I can think of right now that may get a merit would be Serina. She might get a high enough media spot with her popularity (and if SDN can get that many votes to get such a high spot in setlist 100, throwing it all into one girl is going to have an impact).
For less-popular grad members, sitting through 2 hours looking at younger girls go on stage getting trophies doesn't sound that fun.

[Tanchan]

With Maimai we can't say for sure that she's not interested in the election or senbatsu or center because:
1. When she left the election hadn't happened yet.
2. AKB wasn't Japan's top selling girl group as they are now. To a certain extent, Maimai's popularity back then could have rivaled AKB. Had she stayed till the election, she could have beaten Acchan and probably became Acchan's main rival for no.1 in next several elections (assuming she was still staying in the group). THe reason she left was because AKB was going through a difficult financial situation, there was nothing more she could get out from it and felt she should jump the ship before it sinks. Who, at that time, could have guessed that AKB will become Japan's top female idol group 1 year later?

However, since she's not eligible and she has left for a good amount of time, her fans have moved on and found a new oshimen, even if she came back, I think she could still make senbatsu but wouldn't likely be in kami7.

[SomethingWild]

Two things that would make this really interesting:
- If members from other idol groups could register (H!P, Afilia, Idoling, etc. etc.) 
- If Paruru would not participate. 

As far as the graduates go:
- Hirajima Natsumi is on the top of my list of potential candidates. She always ranked #26, yet she never got a proper goodbye. Unless her scandal put her on the blacklist.
- MaiMai left a long time ago and I think a lot of current/new fans barely even know her. Her solo CD sales have been really low and I haven't really seen her in magazine or on tv that much anymore either (other than that Bananaman show). Even if she were eligible, she might not do well. Her time was five years ago. Actually, when you see her interact with current members (like SKE recently) she barely even looks at them, so I think her days as a typical idol are far behind her.
- Some of the SDN girls are likely candidates too; Sato Yukari, Serina and maybe Kohara, Ohori and Noro. The question remains what AKB48 has to gain by letting them participate, but I guess it's all to get some extra voting ticket sales and media attention.

Really though, there probably won't be that much of a change.

Otherwise, I don't really see much change caused from the new rules.

I honestly can't believe how anyone could say this won't change much. This new system changes everything. It changes the entire game.
Like Data said, even if Sashihara or whoever wins this election, the victory will be incredibly shallow if not everybody participates.
The election will lose all authenticity. I know it's all for fun and entertainment, so I don't want to take it too seriously...
but if I have to spend money on CDs for voting tickets then I don't want it to be for an election that's this manipulated and essentially meaningless.
If the girls have any actual say in all this, they should make some sort of pact and ALL participate. Everybody. Especially Yuko.


edit:

In response to Rust's post, there are indeed several parallels between this and 'real life' politics. In the Netherlands we had one party who was going to be the biggest, the SP. However, in the media they were constantly ignored and ridiculed. The media targeted everything towards a battle between VVD and PVDA, a party which was almost non-existent after the last elections. However, this was so hyped and people were fooled into making a choice between either one of these parties. In other words they basically said, voting for SP won't make a difference because it'll come down to the other two parties. That is a lie, of course, since SP had massive support. However, because the media was so powerful the majority of the people indeed voted for either VVD or PVDA making them the two biggest. SP barely got votes in the end making them insignificant. The most f'ed up thing is that the two "completely opposite parties" now work together and form out government. It's been a massive set-up from day one. Democracy doesn't exist. [/depressing rant]. 

edit:

Urano Kazumi is in: https://plus.google.com/104239976758048507102/posts/DazpWgjDfBE

[jafeijai]

Noteworthy participation updates:
- Yonezawa Rumi has tweeted she will not be participating
- Ono Erena has tweeted she will not be participating
- After what she said last year, Shinoda Mariko has tweeted she is definitely taking part this year
- Yamamoto Sayaka has stated on G+ that she will take part
- Watanabe Miyuki has also stated on G+ she's in

- Suzuki Shihori has announced her candidacy on G+
- Kotani Rhio has announced her candidacy on G+
- Urano Kazumi has announced her candidacy on G+
Edit: Noro Kayo has announced her candidacy on her blog

HELL YEA CINDY AND NONTI ｷﾀ━━━━ヽ(ﾟ∀ﾟ )ﾉ━━━━!!!!

[winner]

I honestly can't believe how anyone could say this won't change much. This new system changes everything. It changes the entire game.

I don't know about Boykun, but I only meant there won't be much change in the end results even with these rules in place. Course, it's all just a guess.

I feel exactly the same that if they add rules to grab control of votes and results, it just lose the meaning of the Senbatsu event and it wouldn't be fun at all.
And really sad if any non-top current members chose to not join. Since they should be taking every chance they get.
As for the more popular members, I guess it's the same as my remarks on Yuko. Course, it would be best if everyone joined.
In a way, the rules have already served a purpose by making people interested by worrying about member's decisions.

[maliciel]

I honestly can't believe how anyone could say this won't change much. This new system changes everything. It changes the entire game.
Like Data said, even if Sashihara or whoever wins this election, the victory will be incredibly shallow if not everybody participates.
The election will lose all authenticity. I know it's all for fun and entertainment, so I don't want to take it too seriously...
but if I have to spend money on CDs for voting tickets then I don't want it to be for an election that's this manipulated and essentially meaningless.
If the girls have any actual say in all this, they should make some sort of pact and ALL participate. Everybody. Especially Yuko.

You yourself said, any girl who doesn't participate might as well quit. And everyone (Japanese and overseas) has been saying the same thing, anyone who doesn't participate is spitting in the fans' faces. It's pretty evident that anyone who's even remotely cognizant of their position of an idol would never do something like that. What authenticity does the election lose if no one drops out? Or what will it lose if someone like Yuko decides not to participate (with good reason, imo)? Personally I feel like the older girls should go out of the running because believing what Mariko says seems really naive to me. Even if the strongest of the newbloods came up to Mariko with murderous intent, she'd not so much scratch her, because everyone knows how hard it is to break the hold that the older members have on the Japanese public's conception of 'AKB'.

I think saying 'this election has high amounts of manipulation' is just putting undue trust in the format before, which was just as open to exploitation as this one, except in this case it's a lot easier to tell if it's actually being done.

edit:

I don't believe in the 'shallow victory' theory. Sure, if some girls pull out and another girl (example: Meru) wins, I don't think it's right to say she won a hollow victory simply because Yuko didn't participate. She still overcame literally 200 other people and the collective voting might of fans who have renewed hopes of bringing their girl to the top as a result of Yuko retiring.

[SomethingWild]

You yourself said, any girl who doesn't participate might as well quit. And everyone (Japanese and overseas) has been saying the same thing, anyone who doesn't participate is spitting in the fans' faces. It's pretty evident that anyone who's even remotely cognizant of their position of an idol would never do something like that.

Yes. So it'll be interesting who decides not to participate.

What authenticity does the election lose if no one drops out?

None, but some girls will drop out.

Or what will it lose if someone like Yuko decides not to participate (with good reason, imo)?

We'll never know if it's her own decision. You're right saying that they could have affected the earlier results too, but still... Why make it so obvious. But hey, maybe Yuko does participate and I'm completely wrong about everything.

Personally I feel like the older girls should go out of the running because believing what Mariko says seems really naive to me. Even if the strongest of the newbloods came up to Mariko with murderous intent, she'd not so much scratch her, because everyone knows how hard it is to break the hold that the older members have on the Japanese public's conception of 'AKB'.

That's exactly the point. That's what makes it exciting and can turn girls into superstars. The old girls are the faces of the group, they made AKB48. They don't need to give up their spot because the newer girls aren't of the same stature yet. Success stories like Umechan making top 16, Sasshi beating Haruna, etc. would have never been possible if they hadn't all participated.

I don't think it's right to say she won a hollow victory simply because Yuko didn't participate. She still overcame literally 200 other people and the collective voting might of fans who have renewed hopes of bringing their girl to the top as a result of Yuko retiring.

True, in terms of support from the fans the number of votes is still meaningful. I just meant that it doesn't really say anything anymore about their position within AKB48. If Meru wins, but Yuko, Yuki, etc. didn't play, that doesn't make her the #1 girl in the group.


Btw, it's been 24 hours now and only a handful of members announced they are entering? That strikes me as odd.
If I were them I'd start campaigning immediately. Hash-tags, poses, slogans, appeal to the fans... no time to waste!

[jafeijai]

Noteworthy participation updates:
- Yonezawa Rumi has tweeted she will not be participating
- Ono Erena has tweeted she will not be participating
- After what she said last year, Shinoda Mariko has tweeted she is definitely taking part this year
- Yamamoto Sayaka has stated on G+ that she will take part
- Watanabe Miyuki has also stated on G+ she's in
- Suzuki Shihori has announced her candidacy on G+
- Kotani Rhio has announced her candidacy on G+
- Urano Kazumi has announced her candidacy on G+
- Noro Kayo has announced her candidacy on her blog
- Masuda Yuka has tweeted she will not be participating

According to this tweet, the following members have also announced they will participate:
- Fujita Nana
- Matsumura Kaori
- Shibata Aya
- Iwanaga Tsugumi (SKE 5th gen KKS)
- Ijiri Anna (Team BII)
- Umemoto Madoka
- Takayanagi Akane
- Ogasawara Mayu
- Yamada Nana
- Shiroma Miru
Given the girls mentioned, I would assume these were announced on the girls' G+

Also, Nito Moeno will not be participating.

[maliciel]

That's exactly the point. That's what makes it exciting and can turn girls into superstars. The old girls are the faces of the group, they made AKB48. They don't need to give up their spot because the newer girls aren't of the same stature yet. Success stories like Umechan making top 16, Sasshi beating Haruna, etc. would have never been possible if they hadn't all participated.

I think maybe the conflict is that our individual interpretations on the purpose of sousenkyo differ quite a bit. While you place importance in the competition between individual girls, for me the ideal sousenkyo would be one similar to janken, where it's possible to influence the group to the point that it 'breaks'. And this new initiative allows that to come to fruition, so it's the best situation in my opinion. I don't want to see one Mayuyu vs Yukirin, I want to see Miyawaki Sakura vs the World.