This leads me to believe that this is Tomochin's last senbatsu election and she will probably graduate later this year or early next year. It wouldn't surprise me if she withdrew from this year's Janken tournament and announced her graduation at some big late Summer concert.
I haven't really wanted to admit it, even to myself, but I've actually been thinking this for a while now. Tomochin's career trajectory lately has definitely been heading towards a point outside of AKB. The fact that she says she doesn't really care how she does in this election is just more proof.
So yeah, I think Tomochin's future in AKB depends on how well her new single does. If "10nen" does sell a lot then Tomochin might feel like it's safe for her to graduate from AKB48. However, if "10nen" flops then she might have to stay in AKB because if your fanbase isn't rock solid then your popularity will drop a lot after graduating. This makes Tomochin's case quite interesting. She's one of the very few members who has a lot of casual fans who aren't even into AKB. To stay popular you need those casual fans but on the other hand they are no way near as loyal as hardcore AKB-fans. Quite a few AKB-fans would stop following Tomochin if she left AKB but at the same time she could gain even more casual fans. Unfortunately those casual fans would never buy dozens of copies of her releases...
I really have no idea how well 10nen will do. I voted extremely optimistically in the sales prediction thread, but I'm not entirely confident that she'll be able to pull it off. If her "agency" (and if you know how I feel about HoriPro, you'll understand why I put that in quotes) really wanted this single to launch her into a solo career outside of AKB, then they should have done a much better job at the marketing for it.
I really want to see Tomochin succeed when she leaves AKB. And not just because she's my Oshimen. That large group of casual fans she has gives her a higher chance at success than most of the other girls would have. If she can't do it, then I worry about the future of
all the girls.
So, are you still planning to vote for Tomochin despite her recent comments? Or will you rather support her new single and buy a few extra copies? I didn't vote for Tomochin last year simply because I thought she was easily gonna make it to Kami 7 but this year I'm definitely gonna support her. Even if Tomochin is planning to graduate soon, I feel that the fans should thank her for her time in AKB 
This. I actually felt really guilty for not voting for Tomochin after the results came in last year. There's no way I"m going to let that happen again, in what will most likely be her last election.
... Tomo-fans might mobilize after last year's disappointment and of course Acchan's graduation could boost her votes even more.
Do you and I count as fan mobilization? Seriously, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this happens. As for Acchan voters, I wonder how many of them are casual AKB fans who bought the single and vote for her because she's the one they recognize. Those votes would probably go to the next person they remember from the PV of the actual single with the election ticket in it. Which would most likely be Mayu.
- It always surprised me Tomochin aims at being a vocalist. I know she's a big Amuro fan and aspires a similar career. However, to me, Tomochin has some of the weakest vocals in AKB48 and it feels like she's going down a very difficult road is she focuses on a solo singing career. Yes, vocals may not be 100% necessary for a successful career, but it helps.
I enjoy listening to Tomochin sing, but I'm madly in love with her so I'd probably enjoy having her slap me around a bit with a large trout.
- I feel Tomochin has the best career opportunities in fashion (expand the whole TomoCawaii brand, magazine, CMs, the lot). Secondly, it would be cool if she can do some variety or acting gigs and more CMs to stay in the picture.
This. No matter what we think of her vocals, most folks would agree that she's an extremely beautiful woman. I think it's very telling that she did much better in the election the year she had multiple PBs than she did the year she had multiple singles.
edit: I'd be very sad when Tomochin graduates. Each 1st (2nd and 3rd) generation member is getting increasingly precious and I hate to 'lose' any of them.
It's hard to believe that we're getting ever closer to a point when we'll have an AKB48 with no 1st gen members in it.
I'll be really sad when Tomochin graduates. I'll probably even cry like a baby when I see it happen. None of that "manly tears" or "dust got in my eyes". I'm talking about having to pause the video because I can't see what's going on any more crying. Hell, for months after Erepyon graduated, I got tears in my eyes every time I heard a song with her in it. And she wasn't even my Oshi.
However, I can honestly say that I won't be taken by surprise when it happens. I'm expecting it any time now. Life will go on, and so will my fandom - for Tomochin and the 48 empire. She may have been the reason I entered the fandom in the first place, but I've discovered so many reasons to stay.
Topic: The Official Tomochin Thread (Read 1321806 times)