So is it already clear that whoever wins Texas and Ohio, the actual vote for democrat candidate is made by these "supermen" of the party? And they're probably gonna choose Clinton?
Not really.
The 'pledged delegates' (elected by the states) aren't committed. They're free to vote for whoever they want once they get to the convention. It would be a major problem if they didn't follow the wishes of their districts, but it's possible.
The majority of Superdelegates (Congressmen, governors, former presidents, etc.) are totally uncommitted. Hillary is currently leading in terms of endorsements from superdelegates, but the superdelegates are free to change their mind. Many of them are still uncommitted (enough to tip the balance to either side).
Complicating things further is the fact that delegate allocations aren't particularly sensible. Most districts split their delegates based on the proportion of the popular vote. This means that to get 3 of 4 delegates in a 4 delegate district you'd need 63% of the vote. If Obama got 59% and Hillary got 41%, they'd split the delegates 2 each. In a 2 delegate district Hillary would need 75% of the vote to get both delegates, otherwise they'd split 50-50.
In essence this makes it very hard to get a delegate lead out of most states. Obama has the advantage here since his base (college-educated men, African-Americans) are mostly urban. Urban districts tend to have 6 or 8 delegates each, so he's in a better position to capitalize on his advantages. That sort of thing explains why Obama was able to pull off a bigger delegate advantage out of Idaho than Hillary was from, for example, New York.
So even though Obama has the most pledged delegates, the delegate allocation process isn't very fair. Hillary could easily surge ahead of Obama in terms of the popular vote if she does well in Ohio and Pennslyvania. If that happens, the superdelegates will be in an even tighter jam.
This isn't even touching what should be done about Michigan and Florida, both important swing states. As a NY'er used to having the election decided before my turn to vote arrived, I can sympathize with their point. A credential battle leading to Michigan and Florida's delegations being left outside in the rain would be fatal for either candidate. I have a hard time coming up with an electoral map that shows the Dem's winning without Michigan, unless they pull of a real upset in Virginia or Kentucky.
Anyway, if all of this sounds less than ideal, blame Howard Dean, it's his fault. Even better, write a letter to your Senators and Congressman (if they're Democrats) and tell them how unhappy you are with the process.
Topic: US Elections 2008 (Read 41072 times)