What if the Americans didn't drop the nukes on Japanese Cities?

[meowchi]

As a Japanese American- I have always wondered what would have happened in WW2 if we did not have nukes and there was no bombing of those two Japanese Cities. I suspect that the battle of the Japanese Mainland (including Tokyo) would have killed more people in the long run and the war would have gone on for many years. I understand that even kids as young as 7 were expected to fight against the Americans.

Any theories?

[Tuffty]

Speaking out of what I learned from GCSE History then you're absolutely right, America had this new nuclear bomb developed and were faced with a harsh decision. Let the war continue and face more American casualties over an undetermined period of time, or use the bomb on civilan areas to demonstate superior military and technological power and force their hand into surrender, albeit with the deaths of many many men women and children.

It's always hard to tell what may have happened had they not gone with that option. Had the U.S. never looked at making nuclear weapons, I suppose those innocent lives may have been spared, but the military forces of both sides would have suffered many losses. And I guess the Soviet Union was powerful enough at the time to have perhaps discovered the technology to develop their own nuclear weapons ahead of the U.S which I imagine would have still lead to a Cold War.

If anyone has any plausible what if scenarios they'd like to share I'd like to hear them myself

[StreakInTheSky]

From what I learned, the bomb was being pushed to drop by many of the wrong reasons, like, "did they work?" and, "Look what we have, Russia!" A lot of the people who worked on the bombs actually didn't want to use them. Even one of the heads of the Manhattan Project strongly opposed to using them. To makes things worse, they dropped them on civilian cities.

Some people have claimed that if the bombs weren't dropped the war could've possibly ended in the next two years. Of course there were those crazy stubborn Japanese generals who were willing to fight for as long as they were alive and get anyone to fight for them. But once The Soviet Union gets into the Pacific war, it was obviously over for the Japanese. And with the air raids on major Japanese cities, would the Japanese really be that stubborn to put all their citizens at risk like that? If that were the case, I don't think they would have stopped after the two bombs. Though some thousands more soldiers would've probably died for all sides, thousands of civilian lives would have probably been spared.

I also believe the US dropping the bombs pushed the Soviets into developing their own weapons even faster and also proved to them it was actually possible to make. And it could have been possible that they were able to gather tons of data from the US bombs.

Though I should also say that it it weren't for that arms race we probably wouldn't have had all the technological advances we have now. But it's also debatable if that would be a good or bad thing. >_>

[meowchi]

Some people have claimed that if the bombs weren't dropped the war could've possibly ended in the next two years. Of course there were those crazy stubborn Japanese generals who were willing to fight for as long as they were alive and get anyone to fight for them.

Actually, the rulers of Japan themselves were stubborn. The records of the Junta meetings show them pretty unanimous in carrying on the fight even after the first bomb was dropped. Even after the second, there were still more than a few that wanted to carry on fighting.

But once The Soviet Union gets into the Pacific war, it was obviously over for the Japanese.

I actually thought that too, but the Soviets entered as the bombs were being dropped, so that point is moot. (unless anyone wants to clarify for us?)

And with the air raids on major Japanese cities, would the Japanese really be that stubborn to put all their citizens at risk like that? If that were the case, I don't think they would have stopped after the two bombs. 

From the books I've read and the classes I've been in; a majority of debators say: Yes, they were. I've read more into this and I can safely say the Japanese almost did not stop after two bombs...

Though some thousands more soldiers would've probably died for all sides, thousands of civilian lives would have probably been spared.

Again from what I gather from the books/debates: I disagree... Imagine Iraq on steroids. Booby traps, women and children suicide bombers.

I also believe the US dropping the bombs pushed the Soviets into developing their own weapons even faster and also proved to them it was actually possible to make. And it could have been possible that they were able to gather tons of data from the US bombs.

Most of the major powers were working on atomic weapons going back to at least the 1920s. The Manhattan Project was not focusing on some new idea. The USSR obtained their A-Bombs from former Nazi scientists they grabbed at the end of WWII. Much like we and others did as well...

[meowchi]

Forgive me guys, I JUST got out of debate class so I have to post my thoughts here:

Another likelihood is that Japan would have potentially split up post-war much like Germany as the Soviets would most certainly have played a part in the final outcome or any land invasion......

Which reminds me; the invasion of Japan by Allied forces was already planned, along with estimates of casualties, etc. "Operation Downfall" was the name of the plan. Two landing were planned on the Japanese mainland - one in November 1945 and another in March 1946. It was expected to involve eventually 3.5 million allied combat and support personnel.

Japan in turn was preparing for the invasion, Ketsu-Go. They had been preparing since 1944. They actually had no shortage of suicide aircraft, thousand of cheap planes, essentially flying bombs. Their plan was to launch massive kamakaze aircraft attacks (from hidden airstrips) at allied vessels to smash the invasion fleet. They estimated they could attack and damage 800 vessels in one strike. If a landing was achieved, the first one in November was aimed at Kyushu, Japan had some 800,000 soldiers to fight. These aren't woman and children, but hard core fanatical soldiers. Organized divisions, tank brigades. etc. They had already stockpiled supplies and ammo. Beyond the beaches, Japan is rocky and mountanous, a natural defendable fort. One giant Iwa Jima was exected - caves, bunkers, underground supply depots, fortified positions with machine gun nests and artillary covering square miles.

And then, as was stated, every civilian was expected to fight to the death. 28 million fanatics to the emporer equiped with ancient rifles and satchel charges.

Casualties on both sides, needless to say, were expected to be horrendous. Estimates - 1,000 Japanese and American battle deaths an hour in the first few days, up to a million allied casualties total. No telling how many Japanese would have died in battles and in mass suicides - 4 or 5 million is not out of the question.

During all this, the USSR would have been playing some games, just as they seized Manchuria during the final days of the war. Expect then to have gobbled up portions lightly defended China and Northern Japan, as well as Manchuria. Possibly we would have seen a north and south Japan divided as we say in east and west Germany.

Not to make this political, but it's absolutely incredible that someone can look a the dropping of the atomic bomb as a horrible and uneccessary act. It saved millions of lives on both sides by ending a terrible war.

[THUNDERDUCK]

The Soviets didn't have the technological superiority.  They were too busy fighting the Germans, and would not engage the Japanese until way later due to the Soviet Japanese Neutrality Pact.  The Russians main advantage at the time was the weather, which stalled the German forces.  The Russians however had lots of infantry, which sadly were cannon fodder to the German war machine (which excelled in wartime technology).  In regards to the Bomb, from what I remember studying, the Japanese were warned ahead of time, but the details were very much nondescript.  Basically a warning that a weapon would be used (since we didn't know if it would work or not).  The second bomb was dropped because the Japanese didn't surrender after the first.