I don't think graduations surprise me anymore. This is the nature of Morning Musume, Hello! Project, the entertainment industry in general, and life itself. Everything that starts has to end, and the schedule is different for everybody. If no one left the group, where would we be now?
But that's not the reason I'm not surprised in this case.
Didn't Tsunku say some time ago that there wouldn't be more than 10 members in Morning Musume again?
Combine that statement with the 2010 auditions that he alluded to at AX, and this makes more sense.
If no one left, we'd have another ballooning in members, which if you remember 2003-2004, was a little unwieldy.
Is it sad? Sure. Graduating from high school is sad too, but ultimately everyone goes on to pursue bigger and better things.
So, assuming that the statements released are truthful, here is what I'm taking from this:
Things you should be glad about
-Koharu isn't leaving in disgrace. If you think about previous scandals, this could be a LOT worse.
-When she leaves, it seems likely that you will see her again in the future.
-She is supposedly leaving to pursue her own goals.
-If she does come back to sing, she'll be solo.
-There doesn't seem to be any news of her leaving UFA, just H!P. Her situation will be the same as all the Elder Club graduates. (Still keeps seniority and such)
-Even if she's leaving H!P, there has been precedent for members coming back. (Konno)
-If she chooses, this gives her room to change her image more to her liking. When members aren't free to do that, you've seen what can happen. (Kago)
-Morning Musume still goes on and will have room for more new members when auditions come up. (next year, if Tsunku at AX is to be believed)
-Other Morning Musume girls will have a chance to be part of the Takahashi/Tanaka/?? front girl trio. (Right now, this is looking like Eri to me.)
Things to be sad about
-You won't see her as often, if at all, at least in the short term.
-There is a risk that she'll drop out from show business and you won't see her at all.
-Morning Musume will be different. Not really something sad though, it's more of an inevitability. Though, I can see how this could be devastating if you're a fan of the girl and not of the group.
Admittedly, I'm having trouble thinking of things to be too sad about. I guess living with my own favorite member leaving H!P altogether for a period of time has given me that kind of perspective. I just can't make myself see this as a disaster, since it's happened so many times before and I can't remember any 100% negative results. I'd rather be glad for the girl I like making her own decisions about her future than be spiteful towards those who may not even have been involved. (UFA Management, Tsunku, boyfriend who may not exist) You see, I'm not just a Konno fan, I'm also a Rika fan, an Eri fan, a Junjun fan, and probably most importantly, a Morning Musume fan. If Konno were still in the group, I don't think my support for the others would have grown as it has.
Having seen what post-grad careers can be like, I guess I'm not too sad about graduations anymore. These girls have a habit of sticking around and sticking together. With few exceptions, the things that they say they will pursue after graduation have been truthful and what they actually go on to pursue.
If some random girl's career peaks at age 12 and then for the rest of her life her career didn't go anywhere, I'd frankly be a little sad for her. Boys and girls be ambitious! Be happy that Koharu at least seems to have career goals to head toward. I know I am, and frankly thinking otherwise seems to me just a little bit selfish.