First day: 840,043
Ye olde chart:
Big comparison chart
ヘビー Beginner チャン順 桜木 エビカツ フラゲ 風吹 マリコ GM5 真夏 ギンガム UZA
08/18 10/27 12/08 02/16 05/22 08/24 10/26 12/07 02/15 05/23 08/29 10/31
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
月 ---,--- ---,--- ---,--- ----,--- -,---,--- -,---,--- -,---,--- -,---,--- -,---,--- -,---,--- -,---,--- -,---,---
火 340,487 568,095 471,242 655,344 *,942,475 1,025,952 1,045,937 *,959,280 *,966,529 1,170,554 *,906,617 *,884,602
水 *68,439 112,151 *54,780 101,304 *,142,233 *,113,656 *,*99,592 *,*79,267 *,120,788 *,159,623 *,107,399 *,*92,720
木 *36,469 *61,863 *20,860 *51,196 *,*57,945 *,*65,783 *,*49,190 *,*32,235 *,*53,538 *,101,704 *,*44,748 *,*44,336
金 *29,323 *26,077 *15,765 *53,206 *,*57,371 *,*54,518 *,*26,912 *,*21,188 *,*38,596 *,*59,578 *,*30,596 *,*25,066
土 *20,521 *23,109 *12,821 *30,801 *,*54,330 *,*47,208 *,*26,763 *,*23,346 *,*40,600 *,*56,708 *,*27,380 *,*24,090
日 *20,773 *22,025 *13,201 *27,180 *,*46,246 *,*39,418 *,*28,300 *,*27,746 *,*36,743 *,*52,631 *,*27,094 *,*18,236
―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
合 516,012 813,320 588,669 919,031 1,300,600 1,346,535 1,276,694 1,143,062 1,256,794 1,600,798 1,143,834 1,089,050
週 527,336 826,989 596,769 942,479 1,333,969 1,354,492 1,300,482 1,198,864 1,287,217 1,616,795 1,181,966 1,128,696
The statistics never lie. The Janken single always does worse than the cool autumn single...
This means we're 44K down on UZA, which if the single will have a similar run would indicate first week sales around: 1,084,000
However! The first day always sets the standard, meaning the next days will be a bit less than UZA % wise.
Back to the original question whether or not it will break one million in its first week: it'll be close!