[2013.06.08] AKB48 5th Senbatsu Election & Swimwear Surprise 2013 [Mook]

[LarcKen]

Sasshi getting prelim #1 with such a heavy lead - To put it really bluntly, I just lost a little faith in humanity.

THIS really..

[AKBfan26]

Quite shocking to see them actually. I think thing's will change dramatically especially Ayachan who will probably fall into FG's maybe? She hasn't even ranked before!

[+u+u]

It's just prelim results. Why make such big deal about it or panic over it? I'm not saying anything until ALL VOTES are counted and they announce the final results - w- Yuko fans probably got their fighting spirit on though lol. Also, hopefully Mariyagi fans can get her ranked higher than last year ;a; I'd be sad to see her go down since I've decided to give all my votes to Sae ;A;

[SomethingWild]

Let's comment!

- Expected Wasamin a bit higher
- Sakura crazy low. I hope (and assume) this will inspire more people to vote for her.
- Shihori ranking must be down to Anta Dare. It's the only thing she's in.
- Naoko Okamoto... who?!
- Saaahoooo~
- Surprised to see girls like Kinchan and Yukko so high
- If Meru ranks above Sakura I'ma quit following HKT. lol
- Rie quite low. Guess she didn't make fans with her SKE48 adventure and Terrace House stuff
- Akicha low too. Not that surprising, but I'm sure she's be disappointed for the next two weeks.
- Muto Tomu high again. I've never seen her do anything interesting and I don't think she's that special...
- Matsumoto Rina = proof that a great poster can make a difference!
- Jonishi Kei shine aho baka.
- It's very interesting that Iriyama Anna ranks quite high, while girls like Juri, Nagao and Ranran are nowhere to be found.
- Minegishi Minami's scandal is definitely gonna cost her. lol at the cursed #26 spot.
- Yabushita Shuu, aw yeah, NMB's Yuria!
- Umemoto Madoka... why now? Doesn't make much sense. Maybe because she lost her captain title?
- Matsumura Kaori... It was fun the first time, but her chara has worn thin.
- Awyeah, Yuria senbatsu.
- Suda Akari: TOTALLY CALLED IT.
- Shibata Aya... Super awesome, but it doesn't make any sense haha. Let's hope she can keep it up!
- As for the rest...



Sasshi flying straight to the top! I knew there was no way she was gonna drop.
She has become one of the most recognizable faces on Japanese television. She goes beyond hardcore AKB48 fans.
When I saw her in 2009 she was the one who stood out alongside Rena and Kasai:

Sashihara Rino: She is quick, funny, cute.. everything you want in your idol. When someone spoke Japanese her eyes pop out in true Yukirin fashion. Plus she did a bit of her wota dance. Awesome awesome girl!

That was no fluke. She continues capturing the hearts of many, many fans for years to come. She may not get #1, but a top #3 should definitely be possible.
edit: did I actually wrote "quick" ? wtf did I mean... lol




As for the girls we are missing:
- Don't really care about Nagao, Suzuran and Juri.
- Sucks not having Amina and Suuchan. I expected Suuchan to do better thanks to her belly dancing chara. Karen missing too. 0048 no guarantee.
- None of the ex-members. Good. Iranai.
- No next gen SKE48 aces in Nao and Nanako. Not a good sign. On the other hand, 20 members of SKE48 managed to rank so the group seems to be doing just fine.
- WTF @ No Tani Marika or Okada Nana.
- No Maachun?!?? That's really strange.

Sasshi getting prelim #1 with such a heavy lead - To put it really bluntly, I just lost a little faith in humanity.

THIS really..

[edsonmassao]

Good to see Sashi in this high spot, but I don't know if she will maintain until the end....well, I hope she can

it's sad to not see any mentions to Shimada Haruka: I think she deserves to be ranked.

[kaiser5077]

AKB48 5th Senbatsu Sousenkyou Preliminary Result



#1 Sashihara Rino

#2 Watanabe Mayu

#3 Oshima Yuko

#4 Matsui Jurina

#5 Kashiwagi Yuki

#6 Matsui Rena

#7 Shimazaki Haruka

#8 Shibata Aya

#9 Yokoyama Yui

#10 Watanabe Miyuki

#11 Suda Akari

#12 Miyazawa Sae

#13 Yamamoto Sayaka

#14 Itano Tomomi

#15 Shinoda Mariko

#16 Kizaki Yuria

#17 Matsumura Kaori

#18 Takahashi Minami

#19 Kobayashi Ami

#20 Kojima Haruna

#21 Umemoto Madoka

#22 Umeda Ayaka

#23 Yabushita Shu

#24 Kodama Haruka

#25 Saito makiko

#26 Minegishi Minami

#27 Iriyama Anna

#28 Takayanagi Akane

#29 Oya Masana

#30 Nakanishi Yuka

#31 Jonishi Kei

#32 Matsumoto Rina

#33 Kawaei Rina

#34 Furukawa Airi

#35 Muto Tomu

#36 Katayama Haruka

#37 Takajo Aki

#38 Kitahara Rie

#39 Yakata Miki

#40 Isohara Kyoka

#41 Oota Aika

#42 Tashima Meru

#43 Kinoshita Yukiko

#44 Ichikawa Miori

#45 Yamada Nana

#46 Oba Mina

#47 Yamashita Yukari

#48 Kaneko Shiori

#49 Moriyasu Madoka

#50 Maeda Ami

#51 Tomonaga Mio

#52 Fujie Reina

#53 Kikuchi Ayaka

#54 Kuramochi Asuka

#55 Iwatate Saho

#56 Ishida Haruka

#57 Okamoto Naoko

#58 Abe Maria

#59 Yagura Fuuko

#60 Suzuki Shihori

#61 Miyawaki Sakura

#62 Iwasa Misaki

#63 Tano Yuka

#64 Kimoto Kanon

[winner]

- It's very interesting that Iriyama Anna ranks quite high, while girls like Juri, Nagao and Ranran are nowhere to be found.

Answer is simple enough. It's because Nishishi approves


thx anshin_anzen

More seriously. Other than Paruru, I think the Team 4'ers should all be in around the same area in the elections.
But Annin does have a few pluses. She's pretty with her unique 'european' look. I think she takes friggin beautiful G+ pics.
She's also been pushed a tiny bit more than the others, with MG3 and the Sayonara Crawl PV.
Too bad she shows such low presence and motivation sometimes. RanRan and Mariyagi can probably destroy her in this area. But wait, maybe this fragileness is also part of her charm.

[Rust]

2013 Sousenkyou Projection!

Preliminary Result Edition!

Members	Preliminary	Lowest	My Guess	Highest	2012 SSK
[HKT][Team H] Sashihara Rino	#1 | 28,563	#9	#6	#3	#4 | 67,339
[AKB][Team A] Watanabe Mayu	#2 | 14,885	#4	#2	#1	#2 | 72,574
[AKB][Team K] Oshima Yuko	#3 | 14,000	#3	#1	#1	#1 | 108,837
[SKE][Team S] Matsui Jurina	#4 | 13,656	#14	#9	#4	#9 | 45,747
[AKB][Team B] Kashiwagi Yuki	#5 | 12,887	#6	#3	#1	#3 | 71,076
[SKE][Team E] Matsui Rena	#6 | 12,177	#10	#5	#3	#10 | 42,030
[AKB][Team B] Shimazaki Haruka	#7 | 11,832	#23	#15	#11	#23 | 14,633
[SKE][Team KII] Shibata Aya	#8 | 11,530	~	#75	#34	~ | ~
[AKB][Team A] Yokoyama Yui	#9 | 10,616	19	#13	#11	#15 | 25,541
[NMB][Team N] Watanabe Miyuki	#10 | 9,163	#46	#25	#18	#19 | 19,159
[SKE][Team KII] Suda Akari	#11 | 8,753	#29	#22	#15	#29 | 11,323
[AKB][Team K] Miyazawa Sae	#11 | 40,261	#20	#14	#10	#11 | 40,261
[NMB][Team N] Yamamoto Sayaka	#13 | 8,097	#18	#12	#10	#18 | 23,020
[AKB][Team K] Itano Tomomi	#14 | 7,407	#14	#8	#5	#8 | 50,483
[AKB][Team A] Shinoda Mariko	#15 | 7,126	7	#4	#2	#5 | 67,017
[SKE][Team S] Kizaki Yuria	#15 | 6,891	#31	#24	#16	#31 | 10,554
[SKE][Kenkyusei] Matsumura Kaori	#17 | 6,616	~	#43	#34	#34 | 9,030
[AKB][Team A] Takahashi Minami	#18 | 6,598	14	#7	#4	#6 | 65,480
[AKB][Team KII] Kobayashi Ami	#19 | 6,536	~	#83	#60	~ | ~
[AKB][Team B] Kojima Haruna	#20 | 6,502	#13	#10	#6	#7 | 54,483
[SKE][Team E] Umemoto Madoka	#21 | 6,055	~	#84	#55	~ | ~
[AKB][Team B] Umeda Ayaka	#22 | 6,030	#34	#19	#13	#16 | 24,522
[NMB][Team BII] Yabushita Shuu	#23 | 5,539	~	#73	#61	#16 | 24,522
[HKT][Team H] Kodama Haruka	#24 | 5,096	~	#33	#27	~ | ~
[SKE][Team S] Saito Makiko	#25 | 5,051	~	~	~	~ | ~
[AKB][Kenkyusei] Minegishi Minami	#26 | 4,875	#30	#18	#10	#14 | 26,038
[AKB][Team A] Iriyama Anna	#27 | 4,864	~	#38	#27	~ | ~
[SKE][Team KII] Takayanagi Akane	#28 | 4,824	#24	#20	#17	#24 | 14,111
[SKE][Team S] Oya Masana	#29 | 4,703	#53	#32	#27	#27 | 12,142
[SKE][Team S] Nakanishi Yuka	#30 | 4,654	~	#63	#58	#63 | 5,592
[NMB][Team N] Jonishi Kei	#31 | 4,640	~	#77	#48	~ | ~
[SKE][Team KII] Matsumoto Rina	#32 | 4,493	~	~	~	~ | ~
[AKB][Team A] Kawaei Rina	#33 | 4,457	#31	#23	#15	~ | ~
[SKE][Team KII] Furukawa Airi	#34 | 4,392	#36	#26	#23	#30 | 11,179
[AKB][Team K] Muto Tomu	#35 | 4,195	~	#48	#41	#49 | 6,428
[AKB][Team B] Katayama Haruka	#36 | 4,118	~	#46	#35	#48 | 6,602
[AKB][Team B] Takajo Aki	#37 | 4,114	#29	#17	#13	#17 | 23,083
[AKB][Team K] Kitahara Rie	#38 | 3,507	#35	#16	#11	#13 | 26,531
[SKE][Team S] Yakata Miki	#39 | 3,277	~	#67	#61	#62 | 5,606
[SKE][Team S] Isohara Kyoka	#40 | 3,272	~	~	~	~ | ~
[HKT][Team H] Ota Aika	#41 | 3,259	~	#67	#52	#52 | 6,140
[HKT][Kenkyusei] Tashima Meru	#42 | 3,080	~	#51	#32	~ | ~
[SKE][Team E] Kinoshita Yukiko	#43 | 3,072	~	#71	#51	~ | ~
[AKB][Team B] Ichikawa Miori	#44 | 2,948	~	#59	#24	#58 | 5,963
[NMB][Team M] Yamada Nana	#45 | 2,872	#46	#25	#18	#46 | 6,683
[AKB][Team B] Oba Mina	#46 | 2,868	#57	#30	#20	#57 | 5,969
[SKE][Team KII] Yamashita Yukari	#47 | 2,864	~	~	~	~ | ~
[SKE][Team E] Kaneko Shiori	#48 | 2,821	~	78	#50	~ | ~
[HKT][Team H] Moriyasu Madoka	#49 | 2,809	~	#52	#31	~ | ~
[AKB][Team K] Maeda Ami	#50 | 2,761	#56	#45	#37	#42| 7,168
[HKT][Kenkyusie] Tomonaga Mio	#51 | 2,740	#41	#31	#21	~ | ~
[AKB][Team B] Fujie Reina	#52 | 2,710	#43	#37	#31	#40 | 7,782
[AKB][Team A] Kikuchi Ayaka	#53 | 2,704	~	#55	#29	#51 | 6,185
[AKB] [Team K] Kuramochi Asuka	#54 | 2,699	#25	#21	#17	#22 | 14,852
[AKB][Kenkyusei] Iwatate Saho	#55 | 2,685	~	~	~	~ | ~
[AKB][Team B] Ishida Haruka	#56 | 2,665	~	#54	#28	#50 | 6,333
[HKT][Kenkyusei] Naoko Okamoto	#57 | 2,660	~	~	~	~ | ~
[AKB][Team K] Abe Maria	#58 | 2,595	~	~	~	~ | ~
[NMB][Team M] Yagura Fuko	#59 | 2,535	~	#34	#29	~ | ~
[AKB][Team K] Suzuki Shihori	#60 | 2,492	~	~	~	~ | ~
[HKT][Team H] Miyawaki Sakura	#61 | 2,482	#45	#27	#23	#47 | 6,635
[AKB][Team B] Iwasa Misaki	#62 | 2,406	#60	#35	#30	#33 | 9,297
[AKB][Team A] Tano Yuka	#63 | 2,394	~	#42	#33	#45 | 6,694
[SKE][Team E] Kimoto Kanon	#64 | 2,275	#56	#29	#17	#56 | 5,982

[Mayuyusuki]

This election was already going to be much more interesting than last year. With the release of the prelims, it just got better.

[Rust]

Preliminary Result Breakdown!

Teams	Ranked	Old Team	Concurrent
[AKB] [Team A] [Team K] [Team B] [Kenkyusei] [SKE] [Team S] [Team KII] [Team E] [Kenkyusei] [NMB] [Team N] [Team M] Team BII [HKT] [Team H] [Kenkyusei]	30 8 9 10 2 20 7 7 5 1 6 3 2 1 8 5 3	20 7 4 8 1	4 2 (Kodama, Yagura) 1 (M. Jurina) 1 (W. Miyuki) 1 1 (Oba) 1 1 (Ichikawa)

Formerly ranked nembers from last ssk
#21 Sato Amina
#37 Nakata Chisato
#38 Miyazaki Miho
#39 Nagao Mariya
#41 Kobayashi Kana
#53 Matsui Sakiko
#54 Yamauchi Suzuran
#59 Oya Shizuka
#60 Ogasawara Mayu
#61 Sato Sumire

[YKT]

^thanks Rust!



Preliminary Results in the morning TV news





Newspapers

[THUNDERDUCK]

Way to go Shihori Suzuki!  Please get ranked in the finals!

[Rust]

A bunch of morningu news reports.
Aya is receiving a lot of attentions.







130523 Asazuba

130523 Yajiuma

[itsmeyong]

would the election proper on June 8 be broadcast live via youtube?

[YKT]

would the election proper on June 8 be broadcast live via youtube?

Hasn't been officially announced at this time (live streaming via youtube).



There's rumors that Fuji TV might broadcast (speculation using forward looking TV schedules)

[48GGMU]

Whoooaaa... TBH, i didn't saw this is coming 

Sasshi number #1 with almost 29k votes?

Somehow, i felt relieved with this result. Lately, im kinda amused with huge publication of oshiri sister. I think their relationship is more for fun. So i don't like when business is involved. lol, i know im fool

Kojipa with such a nice poster in #20???? 



My final prediction after saw 1st day result:

#1. Oshima Yuko
3rd place in 1st day result just like a chatalyst to boost Yuko's votes. Before, i believe Yuko wotas will give another votes for other member. Lets say they have 5 votes, may 3 goes to Yuko and other 2 to Umechan / Sae. But now, they'll give all 5 to Yuko.

#2. Sashihara Rino
In my previous post i give #2 place to Yuki. Now, i change to Sasshi. I think last year scandal didn't affect too much to Sasshi. So, she'll continue her positive moves.

#3. Watanabe Mayu
I love Mayuyu, but i love not yet member more

The rest (4-18) still same.

#33 Kawaei Rina

#35 Muto Tomu

Horrayyy.... Tom in Next Girl 

But i hope she in 33th place and become center NG coz Kawaei already centering BKA48 lol

[Rust]

Just realized that while I have been busy creating fancy charts, I haven't actually offered my own thoughts on the preliminary result yet.
So..

Preliminary Result Thoughts & Analysis!

HKT 1st Gen vs 2nd Gen!

• 2nd gen Meru & Mio have been receiving good push & exposures recently, while 1st gen feels rather cast aside it seems. This can be observed in the Sayonara Crawl pv (where Haruppi & Sakura were there but barely noticeable compares to Meru & Mio's solid screentime) & the SSK book (where Meru & Mio have their own page & maybe more don't rmb, whereas 1st gen have a quarter of a pages.)
• As a result some HKT 1st gen fans feel that the 1st gen need good results will otherwise they will be in trouble. So when I was on twitter for the live result, & Sakura was announced at #61st, some 1st gen fans were like "tis the end of 1st gen", & this belief was further solidified with Mio ranking #51st above her! Dun dun dun.
• But Then! Out of the blue, Madoka ranked! Higher than Mio in fact at #49th! So a sense of hope appears!
• & Then! Meru ranked! Meru ranked at #42! This truly is the end of the 1st gen it seems. Dun dun dun.
• YET Again! Haruppi Ranked! At #24 in fact! Much higher than the rest of pure HKT members. Roller Coaster Ride indeed.
• I guess the story here is can 1st gen keep it up? Will Haruppi fans feel complacent as a result? I Expect Sakura to surge, but by how much? Will the 1st gen be ahead, or will 2nd gen prevail? Interesting questions methink.

Crisis of the AKB veterans!

• 10 members who ranked in last years ssk didn't rank in preliminary this time around. They are:
  • #21 Sato Amina
  • #37 Nakata Chisato
  • #38 Miyazaki Miho
  • #39 Nagao Mariya
  • #41 Kobayashi Kana
  • #53 Matsui Sakiko
  • #54 Yamauchi Suzuran
  • #59 Oya Shizuka
  • #60 Ogasawara Mayu
  • #61 Sato Sumire
• With the exception of Maachun, all the rest are AKB members, & mostly members I consider veterans in the sense that they are neither the senbatsu-lvl old gen, nor the pushed new gen. I think being less pushed, & with theatre editions giving votes now, these members will have an uphill battle to fight if they were to stay in senbatsu. I honestly expected them as incumbents to have stronger staying power tho.

Roar of the Original Team E Member!

- Umemoto Madoka... why now? Doesn't make much sense. Maybe because she lost her captain title?

- Shibata Aya... Super awesome, but it doesn't make any sense haha. Let's hope she can keep it up!

• Based on what I read, SKE used to swap senbatsu around & allow a full range of mid-tier members to get a turn at it. That changed when SKE ranked 15 members in last yr's SSK.
• Senbatsu became stable, featuring the regular senbatsu members plus the two pushed aces (Nao & Nannan) & Rie.
• Recently, regular senbatsu members are graduating en-mass (Sawako, Kumin, Ogi), & Manatsu didn't partake in SSK.
• So Ori-E fans are powering-voting these mid-tier members (seven of them ranked excluding Kanon) to tell management that they want these members to also be recognized, & also to signal the rest of the well-oiled & organized SKE fanbase to vote these members.
• Kanon suffers, cuz she have always been the only pushed Team E members. Whereas last yr she might have received Team E votes, I think this time around she will likely have to rely on her own fanbase as Ori-E fans will vote the other Ori-E members.
• This explains why so many Ori-E ranked, & why so many other SKE members ranked too (grads resulted in an abundance of votes).
• Doesn't quite explain Aya's crazily high votes tho. I guess this is cuz one of the more popular SKE theatre members (centered a SKE sidetrack before), hence many of the abundant votes gone her way.

Casual/Woata Differences?

• The other one of the many surprises is the fact the KojiHaru, Takamina, Mariko, & Tomochin ranked so low!
• There are some that argues as these members' career progress, they come to rely more on the casual fan base rather than wota.
• The fact the theatre editions now grant votes therefore strongly benefit members with more proportion of wota fans, to the detriment of members with higher proportion of casual fans.
• Also worth mentioning is the among the top 10 from last yet, everyone's Prelim vote haul increased except for Yuko & Yuki's slight dip, even for the 1st gen members too by a significant margin! This give the theory some credence.

Power of expectations?

• Members performing better than expected or worst than expected might make a huge difference! Here's a simple illustration of why:
  
  • 2010 Prelim: #1 Aachan #2 Yuko
  • 2010 Final: #1 Yuko #2 Aachan
  • 2011 Prelim: #1 Yuko #2 Aachan
  • 2011 Final: #1 Aachan #2 Yuko
  • 2012 Prelim: #2 Yuki #3 Mayu
  • 2012 Final: #2 Mayu #3 Yuki
• So if this factor is also true, the 1st gen that lags far behind might have good reason to be optimistic, while members who out-perform expectation (Paruru, Akari, Yuria, etc) might have more to worry about.
• There's one exception methink, that is when a member score high to let fans notice her as an additional option. Sasshi can be such, as I can see many fans wanting to vote her just to see her as centre now that the option is there. Same with Ori-E members

Sashihara Rino: She is quick, funny, cute.. everything you want in your idol. When someone spoke Japanese her eyes pop out in true Yukirin fashion. Plus she did a bit of her wota dance. Awesome awesome girl!

That was no fluke. She continues capturing the hearts of many, many fans for years to come. She may not get #1, but a top #3 should definitely be possible.
edit: did I actually wrote "quick" ? wtf did I mean... lol

You might have meant quirky?

[YKT]

Found this on 2ch.  Puts faces to the names and numbers in stats and charts...

Speaking of charts...

I checked with chart meister Rust and he thinks I should post this here.   Note that it's an individual's methodology of using last year's increase amount to project the final result which may be flawed...

[YKT]

I just obtained permission from oatmeal to share his/her (I didn't ask sex) tables/charts and insights re the Preliminary results.  Thanks oatmeal! 

So I've been doing some simple number crunching and based on the pre-lim results a couple of things can be said:

Senbatsu still uses up the majority of the votes and based on earlier years this portion will only increase.

30% of ranking AKB members are 9th gen or younger.

AKB has less than 50% of total votes. So together sister groups are more popular than the main branch.
If Yuko, Yukirin, Sae, Tomochin, Mariko, Takamina, and Kojiharu would graduate (aka, be deleted from the prelim data) then SKE will be the largest group. (Even if Sae's votes are counted, SKE is still the largest)

The most popular group, relatively, is HKT, with SKE coming second.
The most popular team, relatively, is HKT Team H.

The only team not to have any members rank is HKT Team KII. Only the NMB Kenkyuusei have no members ranked.

The top 3 teams being able to get fans to vote for their members are: 1. HKT Team H, 2. NMB Team N, 3. AKB Team A.

Total amount of votes in the prelim are 370014.

But if trendlines are used on the last 25 girls, it can be inferred that another 120000 votes have been cast on the unranked girls, leaving about 900k votes of the first day sales unaccounted for.

Of course the data is skewed by Sasshi's huge amount of votes and a lot of her popularity came from her AKB days, but for all measures she is HKT now.

Just another fun fact, if we consider these votes to be of the first 24 hours, then Sasshi got 20 votes per minute. That's some crazy powervoting right there. Mayuyu's and Yuko's numbers (14000-15000) are consistent with the year before resulting in around 10 votes per minute. This means Sasshi either has crazy serious (and coordinated) voters, or increased her fanbase by quite a bit. Disregarding voting tactics of course.

Also, I believe there are no significant voting tactics going on so far regarding delayed voting. Last year the number of 1st day votes was 187277. This year there are 197.5% (2x) more votes: 370014.

There are less than 2x the amount of cd's sold on the first day. 1mil MnSG vs 1.4mil SayoKuro (1.4x). So everyone already seems to be in 'powervoting' mode.

This year's number 64 would've been 25th in last year's prelim results.

[YKT]

TGSK tweeted that investigations are underway of voting irregularities using NMB48 mobile.

https://twitter.com/tgsk48/status/338458790783508481




Unconfirmed/2ch speculation:  hack using softbank (mobile carrier) thru' NMB48 mobile allows multiple votes after paying once (315 yen)

Screenshot