US Elections 2008

[Mugen]

Q: why can't Barack Obama laugh at himself??
A: because it would be racist!

 

[Asmodai]

From Factcheck.org, regarding the current mortgage mess-

...

An obscure accounting rule called mark-to-market, which can have the paradoxical result of making assets be worth less on paper than they are in reality during times of panic.

I wouldn't call m2m obscure. Doesn't it get taught in any first year finance class?

Also, the idea that the market price of an asset isn't what it's worth in reality is silly. The market is what defines what something is worth in reality. If I have a house that I think is worth $500,000, but the most anyone will pay me for it is $300,000, then it's worth $300,000,  regardless of my subjective opinion of its value.

The bigger problem with M2M, in my opinion, is that it forces you to accrue losses before they're actually incurred. This creates distortions in profits on the way up, and in losses on the way down. (Of course it's necessary to cover fluctuating inventory prices and doing without it would bring its own distortions.)

Getting rid of M2M halfway through the financial year, is basically redoing your books through creative and selective omission to say something different. Analysts and investors are going to see through that anyway.

[Saburo]

So...  I'm totally out of it.

What do the latest polls say about the race?  Which opinion polls are the most accurate?  Does it even matter?

I live in Hawaii so my state's four (4) electoral votes are already spoken for.  What about the other 49 and DC?

[cool_kickin_dude]

none of that matters to me..in a month or so..i'm denouncing the country, since i've lost faith in what Eminem sung in "White America",

THE DIVIDED STATES OF EMBARRASSMENT

[Asmodai]

So...  I'm totally out of it.

What do the latest polls say about the race?  Which opinion polls are the most accurate?  Does it even matter?

I live in Hawaii so my state's four (4) electoral votes are already spoken for.  What about the other 49 and DC?

Well, DC is never an issue (90% plus Democratic every election). Neither are states like Utah, Wyoming, New York, Massachusetts, Delaware, Alaska, etc.

The RealClearPolitics.com "poll of polls" provides a good average of the various polls. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Gallup and Rasmussen are generally the most reliable polls in my opinion. The different polls use different assumptions about voter behavior and turn out.

The national average also doesn't determine the winner, because of the electoral college. So, you often have to dig deeper into swing state polls to get a true picture (it doesn't matter if Utah votes 80% or 90% Republican - their votes only count once, meanwhile 500 votes in Florida might easily decide the whole thing).

For an easy to understand probability, the Intrade Markets are a good bet. They involve actual people making bets with real money, so they  tend to be fairly accurate historically. - Right now Obama is up big time: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=409933&z=1223679276935 (79% chance of Obama win, 21% chance of McCain win).

The Senate and House races will be interesting too. The Democrats need 60 Senate seats to have the full run of the Chamber. Currently the prediction markets are only trading on about an 11% chance of this happening.

I also like to read this blog for a daily summary of campaign news: http://campaigndiaries.com/ It's got a slight Democratic tilt, but it has quite good analysis.

For McCain to win there would have to a recovery of the stock market and a major victory in either Iraq or Afghanistan (e.g. capturing Bin Laden, a lasting peace accord, etc.).

[Saburo]

Interesting.  The only site I saw with electoral vote analysis was: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

The site is run by a guy at Baseball Prospectus.  Taking the tools used to project player performance on a different level.

[StreakInTheSky]

Pretty much everyone is calling Obama on this right now.

It's crazy though how some people are so scared of Obama being president, calling him a socialist and many saying the US will fall into a depression if he becomes president. It's kinda scary, a lot of the things people have posted about Obama on youtube and stuff. But people are just scared cause we really don't know what's gonna happen if he does win and there is a lot running on this election.

But really no matter what Obama's plans are, does he even really have the power to ruin this country?

none of that matters to me..in a month or so..i'm denouncing the country, since i've lost faith in what Eminem sung in "White America",

THE DIVIDED STATES OF EMBARRASSMENT

Why in a month? Why not just do it now? If you're gonna abandon this country, then just go. Don't work, don't use the roads, don't rely on any public service this country has provided you. You could go somewhere you'd prefer to live. What is that last strand of faith attached to that won't let you go? Let me me just say, you need this country a lot more than it needs you, especially with that attitude.

[mini*wheat]

It's also probably better to try to be the best American you can be as opposed to just denouncing the country. You can't fix everything, but you can try the best to change the things you can change, even if it's just in your own home.

But hey. We're in America. You have the freedom to denounce you're own country, so who's stopping you? I can kind of see where you're coming from CKD, but you might want to think about it a bit more. It's easy to focus on what we've screwed up (because it has been a lot...), but it's also easy to forget what America does give you.

[iacus]

It's kinda scary, a lot of the things people have posted about Obama on youtube and stuff.

[Guchi_Jnr]

^ Hahahaha!!

 What a bunch of brain washed rednecks...

[meowchi]

It's kinda scary, a lot of the things people have posted about Obama on youtube and stuff.

It's the greatest thing that could have happened for the Obama camp. If McCain had ran a more respectable campaign from the beginning, you would be looking at a different outcome right now. If anything, Obama supporters should be thanking McCain's rough crowd.

One thing about this really irks me...our tax dollars are going to have to pay for more Secret Service to protect the Obamas because of this crap. What McCain and Palin have done in playing to fear and hatred is very dangerous. I wonder if they can be help legally and financially culpable if anything happens to Obama.

[arun.yothin]

I saw something where McCain said something about Obama being a nice person but he disagreed with him and the crowd started booing. In another video he was doing the same thing and an old woman said that she couldn't trust Obama because he was "an Arab". McCain corrected her and went on to praise Obama again.

[Tuffty]

Obama hatred at McCain-Palin rallies: "Treason!" "Terrorist!"

Rapturous applause for Palin? Incessant booing and heckling for Biden? American politics sounds like WWE Wrestling to me.

Whilst having their flaws, I would personally go for Obama/Biden than McCain/Palin. Not sure how it's presented in the US, but over here, the media presents the republican campaign as just an endless tirade of criticising and attacking Obama, digging up what they would hope to be valid links between Obama and a domestic terrorist, at a time when Obama was 8 when these attacks were happening. Palin starts going 'oh why me?' when her links to an Alaskan terrorist group are brought up but if you're going to throw the word "terrorist" around without being too picky about its meaning then be prepared to have it flung back in your face. Palin can't answer a question like, 'Which newspapers do you read?' without having first gotten confirmation from the party, then answers it 4 days later and attacks the reporter for it.

More Palin mob stupidity:

[youtube=425,350]KjxzmaXAg9E[/youtube]

Watch out for classic lines such as 'Obama's been with an Islamic group from a young age, so I think he's a one man terror cell!' and 'Of course Obama's a terrorist, look at his name!'

[Daisuki Daiiyo]

^ There are always going to be ignorant folks, unfortunately.

I saw something where McCain said something about Obama being a nice person but he disagreed with him and the crowd started booing. In another video he was doing the same thing and an old woman said that she couldn't trust Obama because he was "an Arab". McCain corrected her and went on to praise Obama again.

Yeah, I saw that too. McCain said that he was a decent person, and that there was nothing for that crazy old lady to fear. Later, CNN interviewed her after the rally, and the reporter said it went something like so:

Lady: Obama's an arab!
Reporter: No... he's not.
Lady: Well, he's a muslim then!
Reporter: No, he's not a muslim either. He's a regular old Christian American.
Lady: Well, I don't believe that. He's still a Muslim.

[Saburo]

Lady: Obama's an arab!
Reporter: No... he's not.
Lady: Well, he's a muslim then!

This is TOO GOOD to be true.  I swear, these hecklers seem like DNC plants.

[RatBastich]

Here's a lil something I gotta share.
Credit to Keith Justice @ HJU, where I came across the link.
I got some lulz from this.

[Daisuki Daiiyo]

^ Oh Keith Olbermann, if you were only 25 years younger...

This is TOO GOOD to be true.  I swear, these hecklers seem like DNC plants.

lol, it would be pretty brilliant if they managed to organize something like that right under our noses. But I dunno, that old lady didn't seem like she'd be apart of some subplot.

[JDAckers]

That video (posted by Tuffty) was brilliant! Would it be unfair to say those people don't deserve a vote, mainly because they are very clearly misinformed. If you take Obama, and change the B to an S, you get the first name of one "supposed" terrorist! Thats some good propaganda. The main problem with McCain is the fact I don't think he will last 4 years, in which case - the world is over.

[JFC]

I'm a Canadian, and even I find this current election campaign to be quite entertaining.  You can always count on Presidential candidates to show you the right way to dance around all the issues and mud they sling at each other.

-

[shadowstar]

How ignorant some people can be is truly frightening...