I updated the first post so now it should be easier to find the relevant translations and analyses.
Shirenu had a theory that Aichan and Gaki-san were picking some of the younger/less obvious members for their answers in order to give some of the less popular girls a bump.
Naturally, I had to find out for myself just how conventional/unconventional each girl's answers were.
Process:Using the numbers from my analysis in
the first post of this thread, I weighted each girl's answers by how many votes that response got for that question.
For example, if a girl answered "Shimizu Saki" for Q2-2, "admired dancer", that girl would get 11 points, whereas if they answered "Takahashi Ai", they would get 6 points.
Adding up these scores gives what I will call a "conventionality score", which is a measure of how closely a girl's answers matched the overall popular opinion.
In other words, more popular answers were worth more points than less popular answers.
This also means that questions with more consensus were potentially worth more points, which de-emphasizes questions where there is no clear consensus.
The detailed tally can be found
here.
Results and Analysis:Here is a ranking of the average of the conventionality scores for all answers given for that question.
A higher rank means that there was more general consensus for the winner(s) of that particular question.
As noted above, a question with more consensus was effectively weighted higher in determining conventionality scores.
This means that a unique answer for a question with clear winners will impact a girl's score more than a unique answer on a question without any clear winners.
Questions Ranked by Amount of ConsensusRank | # | Subject | Score |
1 | Q2-2 | dancing | 6.84 |
2 | Q2-3 | talking | 6.2933 |
3 | Q2-6 | fashion | 5.34 |
4 | Q2-1 | singing | 5.14 |
5 | Q5 | younger sister | 3.72 |
6 | Q4 | older sister | 3.64 |
7 | Q2-5 | looks | 3.07 |
8 | Q9 | girlfriend | 3 |
9 | Q10 | boyfriend | 2.98 |
10 | Q6 | mother | 2.68 |
11 | Q7 | pet | 2.52 |
12 | Q8 | comedy duo | 2.52 |
13 | Q2-4 | character | 2.12 |
14 | Q3 | secret | 1.9511 |
As you'd expect, questions with a more concrete basis, such as dancing, talking, fashion, and singing, have more consensus.
Conversely, questions with a more abstract basis like who you'd pick as pet, comedy partner, or admired character, have less consensus.
What struck me was that the "mother" question has less consensus than the "girlfriend/boyfriend" questions.
Whereas obvious personality traits and appearance translate well into girlfriend/boyfriend judgments, being a good mother or pet or comedy partner seem like they would have more personal criteria attached.
So given the above levels of consensus for the questions, you can see which questions may have impacted a given girl's conventionality score, which are given below.
A higher score means that the given girl's answers were more conventional, and a lower score means that their answers were more unique.
Conventionality of Each Girl's AnswersAverage Conventionality Score: 51.69444
Standard Deviation: 10.88958
Rank | Name | Score | x-u | z |
1 | Kumai | 70.33333 | +18.63889 | +1.7116 |
2 | Yajima | 66.5 | +14.80556 | +1.3596 |
3 | Sugaya | 65.33333 | +13.63889 | +1.2525 |
4 | Suzuki | 63.5 | +11.80556 | +1.0841 |
5 | Shimizu | 63.33333 | +11.63889 | +1.0688 |
6 | LinLin | 61.33333 | +9.63889 | +0.8851 |
7 | Nakajima | 60.58333 | +8.88889 | +0.8163 |
8 | Natsuyaki | 60.33333 | +8.63889 | +0.7933 |
9 | Tanaka | 56.83333 | +5.13889 | +0.4719 |
10 | Hagiwara | 56.33333 | +4.63889 | +0.4260 |
11 | Mano | 54.66667 | +2.97222 | +0.2729 |
12 | Fukuda | 53.83333 | +2.13889 | +0.1964 |
13 | Tokunaga | 53.33333 | +1.63889 | +0.1505 |
14 | Wada | 52.97222 | +1.27778 | +0.1173 |
15 | Sudou | 51.41667 | -0.27778 | -0.0255 |
16 | Mitsui | 46.25 | -5.44444 | -0.5000 |
17 | JunJun | 44.75 | -6.94444 | -0.6377 |
18 | Ogawa | 42.72222 | -8.97222 | -0.8239 |
19 | Michishige | 42.5 | -9.19444 | -0.8443 |
20 | Maeda | 42.16667 | -9.52778 | -0.8749 |
21 | Kamei | 40.75 | -10.94444 | -1.0050 |
22 | Okai | 39.5 | -12.19444 | -1.1198 |
23 | Takahashi | 35.58333 | -16.11111 | -1.4795 |
24 | Tsugunaga | 34.25 | -17.44444 | -1.6019 |
25 | Niigaki | 33.25 | -18.44444 | -1.6938 |
As Shirenu noticed, Aichan and Gaki-san's answers were indeed among the most unique of all the members'.
I can't say for certain that this was because they wanted to look after their kohais and were intentionally trying to give some of the less-popular members a bump.
I think a more likely reason would be that they were intentionally trying to give more unique answers to make their opinions stand out.
As they are the idols with the most experience, this could very well be the case, as Eri and Sayumi's answers were also among the more unique ones.
Momoko also gave very unique answers, which is exemplified in the fact that she's the only one that gave Manoeri as an answer for two questions.
Again this could be because Momo is a pro like Aichan and Gaki-san, or it could be that her personality is just a little
odd. (I personally think it may be a combination of these.)
At the other end of the spectrum, Kumai's answers were almost unnaturally close to the consensus winners I found in my first analysis.
I can only speculate as to any reason this could be the case.
Perhaps she just didn't put as much thought into giving unique or unexpected answers and just went with whoever first came to mind.
Or, if I really want to speculate, she might be self-conscious about being noticed and is trying to make herself less noticeable.
A more concrete reason for these uniqueness scores might be shown by the next table.
The table given below is the average conventionality score of the answers for the members in each group.
Again, a higher score means more conventional answers, and a lower score means more unique answers.
Average Conventionality of Each Group's AnswersRank | Group | Avg. Score |
1 | °C-ute | 57.2833 |
2 | Berryz Koubou | 56.9048 |
3 | Mano Erina | 54.6667 |
4 | S/mileage | 47.9236 |
5 | Morning Musume | 45.1563 |
As I previously noted, Morning Musume gave the most unique answers, mostly due to Aichan, Gaki-san, Eri, and Sayumi.
In general, these results basically follow the age/experience of each group, with more experienced/older groups giving more unique answers.
It could be that older/more experienced girls intentionally tried to give unique answers to make themselves stand out a bit.
However, S/mileage's answers were also among the most unique ones, which defies the general pattern of older groups giving more unique answers.
As they are the only group that came out of the eggs, it seems likely that
level of group isolation is a factor as well as age and experience.
Since they are the most isolated of the groups, it is not surprising that their answers would not be in-tune with the popular opinion of the others.
This leads me to my next observation:
At the top of the list, °C-ute and Berryz Koubou gave the most conventional answers.
Using the same idea of level of group isolation, this could very well be because all of them came in at the same time as Hello! Project Kids.
This means that not only are their opinions more likely to be similar, but as the Hello! Project Kids girls now make up nearly
half of Hello! Project, their opinions
by definition are the general consensus.
Mano is right in the middle, very close to the average conventionality score.
Though she is less experienced, she is older than most of the other members.
Also even though she is isolated as a former egg and soloist, she has already worked quite extensively with the other groups and seems to relate well with everyone.
Given that these factors offset each other, it is then unsurprising that she is right in the middle of the ranking.
Conclusion:It seems that the uniqueness of a given girl's answers hinged upon several factors, among which are:
Level of idol experience:More experience generally yielded more unique answers, possibly due to idols intentionally picking less obvious answers to stand out.
As Shirenu speculated, this also could be because the more experienced/older members are trying to look out for their less-popular kohai.
Age:Though I have not done a proper analysis of this factor, it correlates strongly with the level of idol experience.
This factor may be important in the previous two analyses I did as well, so this is probably the thing I will investigate next.
Level of group interaction/isolation:Hello! Project Kids are now nearly half of Hello! Project, all came in at the same time, and all know each other very well.
This means that not only are their answers more likely to be similar, but it also means that as a block they are very influential in determining the group consensus.
In contrast, S/mileage has been kept more isolated than the other groups since they were Eggs until quite recently.
Similarly, Morning Musume tends to work more independently from the other groups.
What's next?As I mentioned before, I have not thoroughly investigated the age of the girls as a factor in determining their popularity, the ages of their answers, or the uniqueness of their answers.
Though I believe there may be a correlation, I have not yet formulated the data to prove it.
I also have started thinking about the extent a girl is likely to select members of her own group as answers for these questions.
This seems like an interesting thing to measure and may shed some light on how important group is as a factor in these choices.